Posts tagged as:


A look forward: 2018 London elections (part 1)

January 1, 2018

As a New Year begins, I am setting out the scene for this year’s London elections, a critical test for the three main English parties. This is the first of three posts, setting the scene and covering 10 boroughs (B to G, alphabetically). May’s local elections will be a crucial test for the British political […]

Read the full article →

Corbyn’s Copeland Catastrophe?

March 1, 2017

There is no doubt that Labour’s performance in the Copeland by-election last week was historically bad: a government last won a by-election seat off an opposition in 1982. But Jeremy Corbyn’s most die-hard supporters have tried to explain this poor result away. Do their arguments hold any weight? You have read the headlines: this is […]

Read the full article →

By-Election Special: Tooting

June 15, 2016

Today sees the by-election in Tooting following the resignation of Sadiq Khan as he takes on the Mayoralty of London Much of the talk about today’s Tooting by-election has been about the tightness of the result last year. Without the advantage of Sadiq Khan’s 11 years’ incumbency, is Labour in trouble in this part of south […]

Read the full article →

By-Election Special: Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough

May 2, 2016

Along with the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish, London and local elections being held on Thursday, there are two Parliamentary by-elections. Both should be safe Labour seats. In this post, we take a look at the first of these to be called: Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough. This constituency was created for the 2010 general election, based […]

Read the full article →

By-election special: Oldham West and Royton

November 29, 2015

Thursday sees the first Parliamentary by-election of this Parliament and with it the first true electoral test of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. With some electoral symmetry, Oldham was the scene of the first by-election of the previous Parliament, which saw Labour hold on to Oldham East and Saddleworth. Below is the May General Election result for […]

Read the full article →

General Election preview: Cardiff North

March 4, 2015

As a belated nod to St David’s Day, we turn to Wales for our latest post in the series looking at constituencies that could change hands in this year’s general election When the Conservatives won Cardiff North from Labour in the last general election, it came as no surprise to most observers. Indeed, the only […]

Read the full article →

Week 8: Prat – Victoria Ayling

February 22, 2015

This Week’s Prat of the Week Award goes to UKIP parliamentary for Great Grimsby, Victoria Ayling Surprisingly the first 7 weeks of this year did not see a single UKIP politician awarded with our prestigious prat award.   For a little while there it really did seem that we had reached and passed peak-UKIP. That after […]

Read the full article →

Ashcroft Implications: Labour Has Lost the Election But David Cameron Still Hasn’t Won

February 6, 2015

As Charlie-East West wrote yesterday, Lord Ashcroft’s polls of individual Scottish seats have made it clear that Labour is in deep deep trouble north of the border, including in its hitherto rock solid Glasgow and West of Scotland heartland.   Those polls, with an average swing of 25.5%, would see, if applied on a universal basis […]

Read the full article →

General Election preview: Lincoln

January 19, 2015

For the second in our series on seats to watch in this year’s general election, we turn to Britain’s oldest constituency: Lincoln. Today, Iain Dale shared his predictions for the General Election in The Independent. Some of the individual outcomes may not pan out, but the overall numbers seem about right to me. In his […]

Read the full article →

By-Election Special: Rochester and Strood

November 19, 2014

Until 1999, it had been the convention that Prime Ministers did not visit a by-election campaign. Yesterday has marked David Cameron’s fifth visit during this by-election to Rochester and Strood – a clear indication of the level of panic and desperation in the Conservative Party caused by this Thursday’s looming by-election. When Mark Reckless first […]

Read the full article →

EU Money and Bullshit

October 28, 2014

Although you have to admire the mischief-making timing of the demand from the EU for a further £1.7 billion from the UK, David Cameron’s foot-stomping red in the face outrage is so overdone as to be laughable. If only we had a less credulous press. Let’s take a run through the process. Contributions to EU […]

Read the full article →

The Debates Debate

October 22, 2014

Last week the broadcasters collectively put together a proposal for leader debates for next May’s general election.   The proposal is for three debates.  The first is to involve David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage.  The second a debate (along the lines of those in 2010) between Cameron, Miliband and Clegg and finally […]

Read the full article →

Week 41: Prat(s) – Labour’s UKippy MPs

October 12, 2014

This Week’s Prats of the Week are those Labour MPs who have reacted to the UKIP surge of support in Thursday’s by-election by calling on Labour to adopt more UKIP-like policies There is no doubt about which political party won the political battle last week, and it was not the Lib Dems whose conference in […]

Read the full article →

David Cameron Wags The Dog

August 29, 2014

David Cameron has had a very bad week.  It began with Boris Johnson confirming that he would seek the Conservative nomination for the safe London seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.   Boris would not be bothering to do so unless he thought there were good chance that the Tories will lose the election, so that […]

Read the full article →

London’s New Political Landscape

July 9, 2014

Last Thursday’s council by-election in Tower Hamlets’ Blackwall and Cubitt Town ward brought to an end this year’s local elections in London (both this election and the previous week’s in Barnet’s Colindale ward were held back from the main 22 May elections due to the death of a candidate). The London Local Elections Unlike much […]

Read the full article →

Cheering Not Jeering Politicians

June 18, 2014

I wrote a few weeks back about how I had some sympathy with UKIP supporters in their disillusionment with the state of British politics – bland soundbites endlessly repeated by uninspiring professional politicians who seem like an alien species to most of the population.   UKIP at least, so this argument goes, seem to represent something […]

Read the full article →

Understanding UKIP #1: I Am Disillusioned Too

May 28, 2014

Part of UKIP’s appeal is plainly their stance on immigration, which much more than ‘Europe’ explains, I think, a large part of their growth.  In times of economic insecurity many feel threatened (and some are in fact threatened) by immigration as competition for jobs is perceived to increase and there is a downwards pressure on […]

Read the full article →

Week 17: Prat – UKIP

April 29, 2014

Last Week’s Prat of the Week Award goes to UKIP for proving at every turn that they are exactly as stupid, nuts and dishonest as we always suspected Firstly apologies for this post being a little late, as a result of the small (but perfect) matter of a major life changing event intervening. Now on […]

Read the full article →

In His Desperation Cameron Turns To God

April 17, 2014

I wrote yesterday about the signs of panic in the Toryverse about the stubborn polling of UKIP and the refusal of the British public to accept the heavily pushed conservative narrative (swallowed by 90% of the Westminster Village), that it is Labour who is in trouble and that the Tories are on a glide path […]

Read the full article →

UKIP and The Decline of The Times

April 16, 2014

I am not old enough to remember the apparent halcyon days of the Times before Rupert Murdoch got his grubby hands on the paper.  For me it has pretty much always been the weakest of the broadsheets.  With The Financial Times someway in the lead as the newspaper to be most relied upon for its […]

Read the full article →

What Was Budget 2014 All About?

March 19, 2014

UKIP.   There we are, a simple answer to a simple question.  The 2014 budget was about the Tories abject terror of UKIP and was designed to burst the Farage bubble before he gets a boost from the forthcoming Euro elections. The average UKIP supporter is a retired white bloke of middling means.  The kind of […]

Read the full article →

By-Election Result: Wythenshawe and Sale East

February 16, 2014

Thursday’s by-election result in Wythenshawe and Sale East was, as we predicted, a comfortable victory for the Labour Party. You can find our by-election profile here. Labour’s share of the vote increased by 11 percent from the general election, to over 55%. UKIP took second place, impressively climbing from 3.4% in 2010 to 18% on […]

Read the full article →

“Charity begins at home” – The right wing’s misplaced response to the flooding crisis

February 12, 2014

“Money is no object” – David Cameron is forced to act like a social democrat and implement state spending to address the flooding crisis. In other words, if it is affecting Tory voting Home Counties, then it is goodbye to austerity and hello to spend spend spend. The Tories just can’t let those croquet lawns […]

Read the full article →

By-Election Special – Wythenshawe and Sale East

February 5, 2014

When Paul Goggins went out running a few days after Christmas, he set in train the events leading to next week’s by-election. On that fateful run on 30 December, he collapsed and was admitted to hospital for emergency surgery. Nine days later, he died of a brain haemorrhage at Salford Hospital. Labour has been particularly […]

Read the full article →

Why Nigel Farage is right about one thing

January 27, 2014

Ukip appeal to the lowest common denominator. They feed off fear and loathing and tap into ignorance. They are the political equivalent of the Daily Mail and scarily, a significant percentage of the population buys into their scaremongering on immigration, welfare and Europe. In terms of policy, Ukip are all over the place. After a […]

Read the full article →

Week 38: Hero – Michael Crick

September 22, 2013

This week’s hero of the week award goes to Channel 4 Political Correspondent Michael Crick, for irritating UKIP MEP Godfrey Bloom to such an extent that he ended up being hit over the head with a UKIP conference programme by Bloom – and ensuing the perfect storm for the worst ever day in the history […]

Read the full article →

Beyond the Lib Dems…Who do I vote for?

September 13, 2013

Over the past week I have written at length about the Lib Dems. Firstly, I discussed their unilateral parliamentary support for the Gagging Bill – which was the straw that finally broke the camel’s back in terms of my loyalty towards a party that I have always supported and previously worked for. Secondly, I discussed […]

Read the full article →

UKIP target #8: Aylesbury

September 2, 2013

“Through Amersham to Aylesbury and the Vale, In those wet fields the railway didn’t pay. The Metro stops at Amersham today.” (J Betjeman, Metro-land) Our eighth constituency in our series spotlighting seats where UKIP outpolled the all Westminster parties in May’s county council elections takes us to Buckinghamshire. The first six constituencies that we reviewed […]

Read the full article →

UKIP target #7: Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

August 26, 2013

In our series on constituencies where UKIP won most votes in May’s county council elections, we have moved from Kent on to West Sussex to find our seventh seat. So far in our series, all the constituencies are Conservative-held seaside seats with a history of strong Labour performances. Labour won four of them (Castle Point, […]

Read the full article →

UKIP targets #5 & #6: The Thanets

August 18, 2013

We have reached the halfway point in our examination of constituencies that UKIP notionally won in the May 2013 county council results UKIP were seen as doing well in May’s county council elections along the east coast. As we have seen, they notionally won three constituencies in Lincolnshire and the East of England. But they […]

Read the full article →