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US primaries #9: the Democrats hit South Carolina

February 27, 2016

Tonight sees the last of the eight primaries that precede Super Tuesday: the Democratic primary election in South Carolina Don’t get too excited though: of those eight contests this is probably the one that has the most predictable outcome: Hillary Clinton will win, and win big. The graph below shows our rolling poll of polls. […]

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2016 USA primaries: #2 – Iowa results

February 7, 2016

You know the results: despite the polls, Trump did not win and Clinton only just did. So, why did the polls appear to get it wrong? First, it is worth remembering that caucuses are difficult to poll for: FiveThirtyEight said on the eve of the caucuses that they understated their real margin of error and […]

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