Posts tagged as:

Republican Party

Sweet Jones Alabama?

December 10, 2017

This Tuesday sees the state of Alabama go to the polls to elect a new senator. But can Democrat Doug Jones really have  a chance in this deeply Republican state? The accession of Jeff Sessions – Alabama’s former senator who Donald Trump picked as his Attorney General – created a need for an election that […]

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Georgia’s Sixth: Democrats First Test for Sunbelt Strategy

April 2, 2017

On 18 April, the southern US state of Georgia sees a ‘special election’ to find a new congressman. The election could be a key indicator for the way forward for the Democrats. One of the key questions for the Democrats to face in the aftermath of its electoral defeats last November is its election strategy […]

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US primaries #11: Super Tuesday

February 28, 2016

Tuesday sees the biggest test for the Presidential hopefuls: Super Tuesday where a quarter of the delegates for both parties are up for grabs. So far, the Democrats have elected a total of 156 delegates, and the Republicans a total of 130, through the February primaries. Tuesday’s haul dwarfs those figures: in a single day, […]

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US primaries #8: the Nevada results

February 26, 2016

This week’s primaries in the Silver State cemented the lead positions for both the Democrats and Republicans Last Saturday, I posted on the Democrats’ primary caucus in Nevada. On Tuesday, it was the Republicans’ turn. So, how did it all pan out? 1. THE DEMOCRATS A month ago, Saturday’s Democratic caucus looked like an easy […]

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US primaries #5: South Carolina

February 20, 2016

Tomorrow, the paths of the two US parties in seeking their presidential candidates separate. The Democrats head out West to Nevada, whilst the Republicans slog it out in the Deep South, in South Carolina. This post looks at the Republican race in the Palmetto State. South Carolina differs from the first two states that have […]

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2016 US primaries: #4 – New Hampshire results

February 14, 2016

Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary election was the last thing that either of the party establishments wanted, not only because of the victories of somewhat maverick insurgent candidates but also the nature of those victories. For the Democrats, Bernie Sanders not only beat Hillary Clinton, he trounced her. On the Republican side, Donald Trump not only […]

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2016 USA primaries: #3 – New Hampshire

February 8, 2016

Tuesday sees the next contest in the US presidential primary season, and the first true primary election, as opposed to caucus. New Hampshire is very proud of this, and likes to boast that this is the first true primary. Outside the state capital in Concord, the pavement has a timeline showing the contests, their winners […]

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2016 USA primaries: #2 – Iowa results

February 7, 2016

You know the results: despite the polls, Trump did not win and Clinton only just did. So, why did the polls appear to get it wrong? First, it is worth remembering that caucuses are difficult to poll for: FiveThirtyEight said on the eve of the caucuses that they understated their real margin of error and […]

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2016 USA primaries: #1 – Iowa

January 31, 2016

Tomorrow sees the first test in the 2016 US presidential race: the Iowa caucuses. THE HAWKEYE STATE Of the 48 contiguous US states, the Hawkeye State is the one I’ve spent least time in: a train journey across the south of the state and a few hours in Council Bluffs. For many Americans, they will have […]

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Benghazi, Hillary Clinton and the Republicans

May 11, 2014

Last week saw the Republican controlled House of Representatives sent up a Select Committee to investigate the Obama administration’s response to the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, Libya in 2012, which killed the US ambassador to Libya and one his aides. ‘Benghazi’ has become in the Second Obama administration what ‘Whitewater’ was in […]

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Obama: What have the Romans ever done for us?

May 31, 2013

After a week’s half term holiday largely spent in the sunshine and also in the company of good friends, I have barely even glanced at the news, social media, emails or texts. It has been a liberating experience. I have however, been lured into a few deep political discussions with friends from all sides of […]

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Guide to the US elections #4: The West

September 16, 2012

For the final post in our series running through how each of the US states are likely to vote in November, we take a look at the West. In 2008, the West and the Midwest both had 124 votes (EVs) in electoral college.  But as the Midwest has lost EVs this time around, the West’s […]

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USA Journal 2012 #8: Tennessee

August 23, 2012

Nashville Tennessee’s fifth congressional district For the eighth installment in my series of posts as I travel around the US in this election year, I’m in Music City. It is hard to believe that it has been five years since George East and I had a couple of nights carousing through the music bars of Nashville.  What’s […]

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USA Journal 2012 #7: Louisville

August 21, 2012

Louisville Kentucky’s 3rd congressional district Leaving Lexington, I have travelled west through the horse-breeding hills and bourbon stills of central Kentucky to the state’s largest city, on the banks of the Ohio.  I’m in Louisville. Not Louie-ville, and certainly not Lewis-ville.  It’s pronounced ‘Luhr-vul’.  When I got of the train in Cincinnati all bleary-eyed in […]

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USA Journal 2012 #6: Kentucky

August 20, 2012

Lexington Kentucky’s 6th congressional district For the sixth installment in my travel journal around the States, I have crossed the River Ohio to travel on to Kentucky’s Bluegrass region. Lexington, the state’s second largest city, is an affluent place which in England would be thought of as a medium-large town rather than a city.  As […]

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Romney Picks Ryan

August 12, 2012

You may well not have previously heard of Paul Ryan, the man Mitt Romney picked yesterday to be his vice-presidential candidate running mate.  Indeed, 38% of Americans haven’t either, and a further 16% don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. But for those who do know him, he is a very divisive pick: […]

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Hard Cheese for Santorum in Wisconsin

April 5, 2012

Tuesday’s primaries in Maryland, Wisconsin and the District of Columbia (Washington DC to you and me) amounted to a knock out blow delivered by Mitt Romney to his opponents.  It is now 99% sure (i.e. basically certain barring an unlikely previously unknown devastating revelation from Romney’s past) that he will secure the Republican nomination. Of […]

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Santorum’s Boost from the Deep South

March 14, 2012

On Sunday, I mused whether any post-Kansas boost to Rick Santorum’s chances would be enough to propel him from third place to winner in yesterday’s primaries in Alabama and Mississippi, or whether it might just erode Gingrich’s narrow poll lead to give the victories to Romney. We now know the answer: Santorum won in both […]

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Santorum Romps To Victory in Kansas

March 11, 2012

If Mitt Romney had hoped that he was now a shoe-in for the Republican nomination following Super Tuesday, Republicans in Kansas have other ideas. In yesterday’s caucus, he took a paltry 21% and his leading rival Rick Santorum wiped the floor with him, taking a massive 52% of the vote. The chart below summarises the […]

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Super Tuesday round-up

March 7, 2012

So, Romney won six out of ten states in Super Tuesday, one less than we predicted earlier this week. He picked up the lion’s share of the delegates: 220 of the 419 on offer.  It is worth pointing out that his figures were inflated significantly in two states though: not having either Gingrich or Santorum […]

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All That’s Left’s Guide To Super Tuesday

March 5, 2012

In my last post, I pointed out that Saturday’s result in Washington state was good news for Mitt Romney in the run-up to tomorrow’s Super Tuesday contest. Super Tuesday this time around is a bit less ‘super’ than in previous years, in particular 2008 when 41% of all the Republican delegates were up for grabs […]

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Romney’s Easy Win in Washington Sets Scene for Super Tuesday

March 5, 2012

As you might have seen, Romney won the Washington state primary caucus on Saturday. That win is no great surprise, although Ron Paul fought hard in an attempt to win his first state.  He missed by a fair margin, and by a lot more than he did in Maine. The pie chart below shows how […]

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Romney Pulls Ahead – But A Long Way To Go

March 2, 2012

Mitt Romney needs 1,144 delegates at August’s Republican Convention in Tampa (I pity the great bars of Tampa’s Ybor City having to face such an onslaught) to win his party’s nomination.  As of this week, he has 182 delegates to the 156 delegates amassed by his remaining opponents.  Slowly but relatively surely, he appears to […]

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Chasm Closing in the Grand Canyon State

February 22, 2012

In my previous post, I explained that Michigan was probably the more interesting of the two primaries being fought by the Republicans next Tuesday. But it is worth stressing that word ‘probably’.  A week ago, Santorum was well ahead in Michigan whilst Romney was even further ahead in Arizona.  Yet just as the race in […]

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Taking a Gander at the Michiganders’ Primary

February 22, 2012

We are less than a week away from the next tests in the Republican primary race.  Tuesday sees primary elections in two sizable states: Arizona and Michigan. Both are also potentially swing states in November, although at the moment you would favour the Republicans in Arizona and the Democrats in the Great Lakes State. Of […]

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Romney Headed For Another Win in Nevada

February 4, 2012

As I have previously noted, we are now entering a month of contests in the Republican Primaries that heavily favour Mitt Romney.  The trick for the other candidates, most significantly Newt Gingrich, will be to secure a trickle of convention delegates from most of these and hope for a surprise win: perhaps Maine for Ron […]

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Romney Surfs Lukewarm Wave to Florida Victory

February 1, 2012

So, Romney won in Florida.  Regular readers will have noted that we saw the signs of this a week beforehand when most other commentators suggested that Gingrich could stroll it. He won by a reasonable margin: 46% to Gingrich’s 32%, a 241,898 majority.  It was a far bigger margin than John McCain’s victory in 2008 […]

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Republican Primaries: Florida and Beyond

January 24, 2012

Romney’s campaign seems to have been thrown in turmoil by the outcome of the South Carolina primary and polls currently show Gingrich ahead in Florida.  Florida is a particularly important primary election, as its winner takes all 50 delegates on offer forward to the Republican convention whereas other states (such as New Hampshire) allocate them […]

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South Carolina Round Up

January 22, 2012

As I wrote earlier today, Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primary by some margin: 40% to Romney’s 28%.  This is a remarkable turnaround over the last week and shows that Gingrich’s momentum was uninterrupted by his second wife’s revelations on Thursday. Under the South Carolina primary rules, this gives him 23 or the 25 delegates for […]

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Week 3: Villain – Newt Gingrich

January 22, 2012

This week, we are giving our Villain of the Week award to presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich Today we learnt that Newt Gingrich easily won the South Carolina primary(more on this later), putting him in serious contention for the Republican nomination for President.  A week ago, this seemed unlikely, but on Monday night, Gingrich entered a […]

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