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US primaries #6: Nevada

February 20, 2016

Today, Nevada’s Democrats caucus to decide who their presidential candidate should be. It looks close. Nevada may be the Silver State, but neither Hillary Clinton nor Bernie Sanders will be happy with a silver medal from today’s primary caucus there. The Silver State Nevada is a rapidly growing part of the nation, and with its […]

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2016 USA primaries: #1 – Iowa

January 31, 2016

Tomorrow sees the first test in the 2016 US presidential race: the Iowa caucuses. THE HAWKEYE STATE Of the 48 contiguous US states, the Hawkeye State is the one I’ve spent least time in: a train journey across the south of the state and a few hours in Council Bluffs. For many Americans, they will have […]

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Australia’s Knife Edge Election

August 28, 2013

In ten days time, Australia votes to decide who will run the country for the next three years. Until Julia Gillard was toppled, it looked likely that the Right, in the form of the Liberal/National Coalition (LNC), would win. But Kevin Rudd’s palace coup has made the race squeaky-tight between the LNC and the Australian […]

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Is Boris Really Coasting To Victory?

April 30, 2012

According to the most recent polls, the damage the government is doing to itself is not playing out in the London elections.  Today Populus published a poll showing Boris Johnson 12 points ahead of Ken Livingstone on both the first and second rounds.  That is double Boris’ winning margin in 2008 in the second round. […]

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A Glance Forward to November’s Presidential Election

April 16, 2012

Now that the Republican nomination has been sewn up, if not confirmed, we are turning our attention to how the November presidential election itself will turn out.  As a reminder, the map below shows the 2008 result, with the numbers indicating the electoral college votes garnered by Barack Obama and John McCain. Just to recap […]

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Obama’s Route To Victory?

September 6, 2011

According to Gallup’s weekly tracker, Obama’s terrible approval ratings may have finally turned a corner.  It isn’t great progress: his approval rate from Gallup’s polling last week was only 42% against 51% disapproval, a net disapproval rate of 9%.  But the same tracker had his approval rate flat-lining at 40% for the last three weeks […]

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A Quick Look At The Polls

September 1, 2011

It’s been a while since we last looked at the polls here at AllThatsLeft.  Probably the best place to start is UK Polling Report’s polling average, taken across all the polls over the last fortnight.  As a way of trying to smooth out blips in individual polls, it is as good a method as any, […]

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Latest Mayoral Poll shows Ken lagging behind his party

June 27, 2011

Last week, YouGov caused a bit of excitement in London with its latest poll of voting intentions in the capital. It held good news for both Labour and the Conservatives, and marginally better news for the Lib Dems than some polls last year. The bad news for Ken Livingstone is that his support is lagging […]

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Some Encouraging Signs For Obama

May 25, 2011

As Barack Obama tours Europe, there are some encouraging signs back home for his re-election, albeit that both have important caveats. Upstate New York The more significant is the result yesterday of the special election (the US term for a by-election) in New York state’s 26th congressional district.  This district has been Republican since its […]

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Labour’s Scottish Plummet

April 26, 2011

At the start of the year, it looked as if Labour would stroll back into power in Scotland. Only our months later, the SNP look bound to tighten their hold on Holyrood. What happened? The above graph shows this change in fortune for voting in the Scottish Parliament constituencies.  On 10 January, TNS-BMRB’s poll showed […]

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Yet More on AV…

April 24, 2011

Just as my mate Ray posted on why the Left should vote in favour of AV, news of a poll comes through from TNS-BMRB for the Independent which indicates a tightening of the race: 34% No, 32% Yes. Actually it may not, as this is the first poll by this organisation, and so it is […]

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Why The Left Must Vote Yes!

April 23, 2011

I agree with my Allthatsleft compadres there has been very little in the ‘Yes’ campaign that would make you skip to the polling station on the 5th May to confidently place your X in the ‘Yes’ box. But, regardless of the lacklustre ‘Yes’ campaign there remains one absolutely compelling argument, and, in fairness, Vince Cable […]

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Fourteen massive days between now and May 5th

April 20, 2011

May 5th has the potential to be monumental day in British politics – depending on the vagaries of an extremely restless electorate we may or may not have a new voting system; we may or may not have a dominant confident David Cameron; we may or may not have a destroyed Nick Clegg; and we […]

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Today’s Two Polls On AV

April 18, 2011

With less than three weeks to go until the referendum, there are two surveys to report on today on AV, one a bit more official and scientific than the other. The first is ICM’s poll for The Guardian, which shows a significant shift towards a ‘No’ vote.   On a straight voting intention, the support for […]

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Labour Gains From Capital Punishment

March 25, 2011

Following the South West regional poll earlier this week, UK Polling Report have published another regional parliamentary poll, this time ComRes‘s most recent for London. This is in line with the national shifts in support for each party since the general election, with the two Coalition parties being punished by the capital’s voters to the […]

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Lib Dems: Devon Knows I’m Miserable Now

March 21, 2011

UK Polling Report have flagged up this poll of voting intention in the South West. It would see the Lib Dems wiped out of Devon. And Cornwall. And Dorset, Wiltshire and (pre-1996) Gloucestershire too.  They would be left with Bath, Thornbury & Yate and Yeovil.  The poll by Marketing Means shows the following share of […]

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Lib Dems in Wales: How Low Could They Go?

March 15, 2011

On Friday, I posted about the latest Welsh assembly poll, which suggested that the Liberal Democrats could be reduced to only 3 seats. Even this, however, could be an optimistic appraisal of their situation. Their regional list polling, at 5%, is low enough to prevent them winning any regional top-up seats under the d’Hondt system.  […]

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Oi Clegg, Nobody Likes You

March 14, 2011

…well this isn’t quite true, but on current trends we will reach the point where it is in a matter of months.   The scale of the drop in Nick Clegg’s net approval ratings based on Yougov’s polls can be seen in this chart.  From a net approval rating of +53% in the week of the […]

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Yet another poll…

March 13, 2011

Today’s Scottish Mail on Sunday has a poll for the forthcoming Scottish Parliament elections, which neatly show a similar story to the Welsh Assembly poll blogged about by Jackie on Friday.  Again they are in two parts – for the constituency and regional top up parts of the ballot (difference from 2007 actual results in […]

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A couple of polls…

March 12, 2011

UK Polling Report has details of two interesting polls. First, the latest YouGov poll shows the parties on: Lab: 45% Con: 34% LD: 9% Others: 12% This may be a rogue poll of course, but it is certainly evidence that Labour has a healthy lead at the moment. UK Polling Report’s running poll of polls shows Labour […]

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Mississippi Turning?

February 27, 2011

Obama’s approval ratings appear to be climbing slowly since last November’s mid-term elections. The map below summarises Gallup’s end of year approval ratings for 2010 by state. The good news is if Obama is able to carry every state in 2012 where he currently is showing a positive net approval rating, he will stay in […]

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