Posts tagged as:

Newt Gingrich

Georgia’s Sixth: Democrats First Test for Sunbelt Strategy

April 2, 2017

On 18 April, the southern US state of Georgia sees a ‘special election’ to find a new congressman. The election could be a key indicator for the way forward for the Democrats. One of the key questions for the Democrats to face in the aftermath of its electoral defeats last November is its election strategy […]

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Hard Cheese for Santorum in Wisconsin

April 5, 2012

Tuesday’s primaries in Maryland, Wisconsin and the District of Columbia (Washington DC to you and me) amounted to a knock out blow delivered by Mitt Romney to his opponents.  It is now 99% sure (i.e. basically certain barring an unlikely previously unknown devastating revelation from Romney’s past) that he will secure the Republican nomination. Of […]

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Santorum’s Louisiana Victory Shows It Isn’t Over Yet

March 25, 2012

That isn’t to say that Mitt Romney’s eventual victory is in doubt: his victory in Illinois earlier this week pretty much sealed the deal on that.  However, the scale of Rick Santorum’s victory in yesterday’s primary in the Pelican State does show that the race will carry on and that Romney needs to continue with […]

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Santorum’s Boost from the Deep South

March 14, 2012

On Sunday, I mused whether any post-Kansas boost to Rick Santorum’s chances would be enough to propel him from third place to winner in yesterday’s primaries in Alabama and Mississippi, or whether it might just erode Gingrich’s narrow poll lead to give the victories to Romney. We now know the answer: Santorum won in both […]

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Santorum Romps To Victory in Kansas

March 11, 2012

If Mitt Romney had hoped that he was now a shoe-in for the Republican nomination following Super Tuesday, Republicans in Kansas have other ideas. In yesterday’s caucus, he took a paltry 21% and his leading rival Rick Santorum wiped the floor with him, taking a massive 52% of the vote. The chart below summarises the […]

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Super Tuesday round-up

March 7, 2012

So, Romney won six out of ten states in Super Tuesday, one less than we predicted earlier this week. He picked up the lion’s share of the delegates: 220 of the 419 on offer.  It is worth pointing out that his figures were inflated significantly in two states though: not having either Gingrich or Santorum […]

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All That’s Left’s Guide To Super Tuesday

March 5, 2012

In my last post, I pointed out that Saturday’s result in Washington state was good news for Mitt Romney in the run-up to tomorrow’s Super Tuesday contest. Super Tuesday this time around is a bit less ‘super’ than in previous years, in particular 2008 when 41% of all the Republican delegates were up for grabs […]

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Romney’s Easy Win in Washington Sets Scene for Super Tuesday

March 5, 2012

As you might have seen, Romney won the Washington state primary caucus on Saturday. That win is no great surprise, although Ron Paul fought hard in an attempt to win his first state.  He missed by a fair margin, and by a lot more than he did in Maine. The pie chart below shows how […]

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Romney Pulls Ahead – But A Long Way To Go

March 2, 2012

Mitt Romney needs 1,144 delegates at August’s Republican Convention in Tampa (I pity the great bars of Tampa’s Ybor City having to face such an onslaught) to win his party’s nomination.  As of this week, he has 182 delegates to the 156 delegates amassed by his remaining opponents.  Slowly but relatively surely, he appears to […]

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Taking a Gander at the Michiganders’ Primary

February 22, 2012

We are less than a week away from the next tests in the Republican primary race.  Tuesday sees primary elections in two sizable states: Arizona and Michigan. Both are also potentially swing states in November, although at the moment you would favour the Republicans in Arizona and the Democrats in the Great Lakes State. Of […]

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Romney Squeaks It in Maine

February 12, 2012

In the final Republican primary contest of a busy week, Mitt Romney managed to squeak a win in Maine, a state he won in 2008 by a 31 point margin.  That margin shrank to 3% yesterday, a paltry 194 votes after 95% of the results have been counted. Romney’s share of the vote was 52% […]

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Romney’s Nightmare Tuesday

February 10, 2012

Regular readers will have noted that I predicted an easy run for Mitt Romney between the Florida primary and Super Tuesday.  Well, what do I know? We now know that Republican supporters in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri had very different ideas, with Rick Santorum winning all three contests on Tuesday.  It looks as if the […]

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Romney Headed For Another Win in Nevada

February 4, 2012

As I have previously noted, we are now entering a month of contests in the Republican Primaries that heavily favour Mitt Romney.  The trick for the other candidates, most significantly Newt Gingrich, will be to secure a trickle of convention delegates from most of these and hope for a surprise win: perhaps Maine for Ron […]

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Romney Surfs Lukewarm Wave to Florida Victory

February 1, 2012

So, Romney won in Florida.  Regular readers will have noted that we saw the signs of this a week beforehand when most other commentators suggested that Gingrich could stroll it. He won by a reasonable margin: 46% to Gingrich’s 32%, a 241,898 majority.  It was a far bigger margin than John McCain’s victory in 2008 […]

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Week 4: Prat – Newt Gingrich

January 29, 2012

Our award this week for the biggest prat of the last seven days goes to Newt Gingrich Last week, Newt Gingrich clinched our Villain of the Week award.  Newt has thrown away his lead of a week ago and now looks set to lose Florida on Tuesday.  And with that, it becomes almost impossible to […]

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Republican Primaries: Florida and Beyond

January 24, 2012

Romney’s campaign seems to have been thrown in turmoil by the outcome of the South Carolina primary and polls currently show Gingrich ahead in Florida.  Florida is a particularly important primary election, as its winner takes all 50 delegates on offer forward to the Republican convention whereas other states (such as New Hampshire) allocate them […]

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South Carolina Round Up

January 22, 2012

As I wrote earlier today, Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primary by some margin: 40% to Romney’s 28%.  This is a remarkable turnaround over the last week and shows that Gingrich’s momentum was uninterrupted by his second wife’s revelations on Thursday. Under the South Carolina primary rules, this gives him 23 or the 25 delegates for […]

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Week 3: Villain – Newt Gingrich

January 22, 2012

This week, we are giving our Villain of the Week award to presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich Today we learnt that Newt Gingrich easily won the South Carolina primary(more on this later), putting him in serious contention for the Republican nomination for President.  A week ago, this seemed unlikely, but on Monday night, Gingrich entered a […]

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I Told You South Carolina Could Get Interesting…

January 19, 2012

On Tuesday, I blogged about Saturday’s South Carolina primary.  Back then, it looked as if Romney was stretching into the lead and, unless there was a significant development, by Sunday he would have won three in a row and be cruising to a relatively easy Republican nomination. There hasn’t been one significant development – there […]

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South Carolina – The Big Showdown

January 17, 2012

If you’ve read my previous blogs on the US Primaries, you will know that I’ve been touting Saturday’s primary election in South Carolina as the key contest. It has been the most aggressive of the contests so far given this crucial nature.  Iowa could be written off as a flash in the pan that tells […]

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Those New Hampshire results…

January 11, 2012

So the votes are all in, and as we (and everyone else) confidently predicted, Mitt Romney comfortably won.  As I also said, in pure numbers terms it matters very little: Romney needs 1,144 delegates at this summer’s Republican nomination conference, of which he now has 20 (or only 14 if CNN is right on its […]

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What to look for in New Hampshire

January 9, 2012

The photo here is one I took myself of the New Hampshire’s Secretary of State’s office: the headquarters for tomorrow’s primary elections in New Hampshire.  I wrote last week about how I thought that primary would be the least interesting of the early primaries. Why?  Because firstly, it is a foregone conclusion that Mitt Romney will win there: […]

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Off The Rails #7: results from the Ames straw poll

August 14, 2011

I’m staying in Cody, Wyoming, the town founded by Buffalo Bill Cody, and as you can see the big news here this week is that a horse has been killed by a grizzly bear. As I said yesterday, Ames Iowa has been stalked by Mama Grizzly herself, Sarah Palin.  The results are now in from the […]

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Mittens Finally Throws Down The Guantlet

June 2, 2011

After the exit from the field of a number of his potential opponents for the Republican nomination for the 2012 presidential elections, Mitt Romney has finally announced his candidacy today.  Romney is currently seen as the favourite. There are five other serious candidates who have announced so far, along with three marginal single-issue candidates that […]

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Republican 2012 Hopefuls: the Red and the Dead

May 19, 2011

George East wrote yesterday about how the US presidential race next year is beginning to shape up.  Here are a few more thoughts on the 2012 race. On the Republican side, the field has begun to clear up a little, with Haley Barbour, Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee all bailing out.  Of these, Huckabee is […]

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Presidential Elections 2012: Republicans Running Scared?

May 18, 2011

In stark contrast to Nick Clegg President Obama’s latest approval figures are looking a lot better than they did a year ago when they were at a net -9%.     The latest pollster poll of polls shows his approval ratings as running 49-45 in his favour.    These are not, though, exactly run away figures suggesting a […]

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A Quick Look At Next Year’s Presidential Race

April 5, 2011

Today, President Obama announced his intention to stand for a second term in 2012. No great shock (other than perhaps that declarations seem to be being made later this time around), but it does give us a chance to see how the race could shape up. Democrats A surprise-fee, excitement free contest that will enable […]

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Dancing like it’s 1998

March 3, 2011

I wrote on 24 February 2011 that the Republican reaction to the Obama administration’s welcome decision to no longer seek to defend the constitutionality of a key part of the Defense of Marriage Act had been relatively muted.  This was surprising both because the American right, has since the Gingrich revolution, seen politics as warfare […]

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