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Corbyn’s Copeland Catastrophe?

March 1, 2017

There is no doubt that Labour’s performance in the Copeland by-election last week was historically bad: a government last won a by-election seat off an opposition in 1982. But Jeremy Corbyn’s most die-hard supporters have tried to explain this poor result away. Do their arguments hold any weight? You have read the headlines: this is […]

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By-Election Special: Tooting

June 15, 2016

Today sees the by-election in Tooting following the resignation of Sadiq Khan as he takes on the Mayoralty of London Much of the talk about today’s Tooting by-election has been about the tightness of the result last year. Without the advantage of Sadiq Khan’s 11 years’ incumbency, is Labour in trouble in this part of south […]

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By-Election Special: Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough

May 2, 2016

Along with the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish, London and local elections being held on Thursday, there are two Parliamentary by-elections. Both should be safe Labour seats. In this post, we take a look at the first of these to be called: Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough. This constituency was created for the 2010 general election, based […]

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By-election special: Oldham West and Royton

November 29, 2015

Thursday sees the first Parliamentary by-election of this Parliament and with it the first true electoral test of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. With some electoral symmetry, Oldham was the scene of the first by-election of the previous Parliament, which saw Labour hold on to Oldham East and Saddleworth. Below is the May General Election result for […]

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By-Election Special: Rochester and Strood

November 19, 2014

Until 1999, it had been the convention that Prime Ministers did not visit a by-election campaign. Yesterday has marked David Cameron’s fifth visit during this by-election to Rochester and Strood – a clear indication of the level of panic and desperation in the Conservative Party caused by this Thursday’s looming by-election. When Mark Reckless first […]

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By-Election Result: Wythenshawe and Sale East

February 16, 2014

Thursday’s by-election result in Wythenshawe and Sale East was, as we predicted, a comfortable victory for the Labour Party. You can find our by-election profile here. Labour’s share of the vote increased by 11 percent from the general election, to over 55%. UKIP took second place, impressively climbing from 3.4% in 2010 to 18% on […]

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By-Election Special – Wythenshawe and Sale East

February 5, 2014

When Paul Goggins went out running a few days after Christmas, he set in train the events leading to next week’s by-election. On that fateful run on 30 December, he collapsed and was admitted to hospital for emergency surgery. Nine days later, he died of a brain haemorrhage at Salford Hospital. Labour has been particularly […]

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By-Election Special: South Shields

April 14, 2013

The resignation of David Miliband from Parliament has triggered a by-election on 2 May in his South Shields constituency, the same day as the local elections. Results The graph above shows the 2010 result, with Labour clearly in a dominant position, taking just over half the total vote. Miliband’s majority was over 11,000: the sort […]

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A Quick Look At By-Election Turnout

March 12, 2013

In my recent post on the Mid Ulster by-election, I noted the exceptionally high turnout at this election in comparison to others during this Parliament.  The week before, Eastleigh had also chalked up a relatively high turnout. I thought I ought to do a quick post to look at this.  As a rule, by-elections have […]

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Mid Ulster – The Results

March 10, 2013

With all the excitement of last week’s by-election in Eastleigh, this week’s by-election in Mid Ulster has been largely overlooked, at least on this side of the Irish Sea. Whilst perhaps not that surprising, it is a pretty shameful state of affairs.  Of the fifteen by-elections that have taken place in this parliament, this has […]

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By-election update: Mid Ulster

February 17, 2013

With all the media attention focusing in on the Eastleigh by-election, the human drama of the by-election the following week (7 March) in Northern Ireland is being largely overlooked on this side of the Irish Sea. The Mid Ulster contest, caused by Martin McGuinness’s resignation to concentrate on his role as Deputy First Minister, has […]

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By-Election Results: Croydon, Middlesbrough and Rotherham

December 2, 2012

Apologies for the delay, but here is our usual round-up on the by-elections that took place on Thursday.  They can pretty much be summed up as great for UKIP, good for Labour, bad for the Tories and calamitous for the Liberal Democrats. Rotherham The most interesting of the three was Rotherham, which saw UKIP’s share […]

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A Look at the By-Election Results

November 17, 2012

So, the nation has voted. Well, at least a few people did. The Police and Crime Commissioner elections have, probably rightly, been ignored by much of the electorate, and significant numbers who did vote went to spoil their vote to register their protest. Sadly, the tumblr site showing examples of these seems to have been […]

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By-Election Special: Mid Ulster

October 16, 2012

With the news at the weekend about Stuart Bell’s death, the tally of outstanding by-elections now stands at six.  Middlesbrough becomes the tenth by-election required in this Parliament in a Labour-held constituency, compared to one in a Tory-held one and two in Sinn Fein-held ones.  This post focuses on one of the latter two: the […]

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By-Election Special: Croydon North

October 4, 2012

The sad death of Malcolm Wicks at the weekend means that there are currently five parliamentary by-elections pending (see our previous posts on Corby, Cardiff South and Manchester Central). Of the twelve by-elections (including those pending five) needed since May 2010, nine have been in Labour seats, only one in a Conservative seat (the pending […]

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By-Election Special: Manchester Central

October 2, 2012

By coincidence, Labour’s conference is taking place in a constituency gearing up for a by-election on 15 November. So, it will not be far to travel for any delegates who would rather spend their time knocking on doors than at fringe meetings or in the bar (comrades, don’t all rush at once!). The graph below […]

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By-Election Special: Cardiff South and Penarth

September 9, 2012

Last month, I wrote about the forthcoming by-election, expected on 15 November, in Corby resulting from Louise Mensch’s resignation. There will definitely be two other by-elections that day, and possibly another (Mid Ulster), along with the elections for Police Commissioners. This post looks at one of those elections, that for Cardiff South and Penarth. The […]

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By-Election Special: Corby

August 9, 2012

Louise Mensch’s resignation this week creates a tantalising by-election opportunity for Labour. The graph below shows the 2010 result for the Corby constituency. So far this Parliament, there have been seven by-elections, one of which was Belfast West. The other six have all been in Labour-held constituencies (of which they lost Bradford West). This is […]

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So What Happened At Bradford West?

March 30, 2012

I’ve always been a great fan of Alan Hansen’s football punditry: usually the most inciteful analysis together with a generous dose of Scottish dourness.  But of course his most famous moment was when he got it wrong: “You can’t win anything with kids”. As Ray North pointed out, I’ve had my own Alan Hansen moment […]

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By-Election Special: Bradford West

March 28, 2012

Although there has been less than overwhelming coverage of it, this Thursday sees a Parliamentary by-election in Bradford West, caused by the ill health of its Labour MP Marsha Singh. This is the seventh by-election of this Parliament, and the sixth in a Labour-held seat (the seventh was in Sinn Fein’s Belfast West seat) – […]

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By-Election Update – Feltham and Heston

December 18, 2011

On Thursday the voters of Feltham and Heston elected Seema Malhotra, who like Ed Miliband had an apprenticeship carrying Harriet Harman’s bags, as their Member of Parliament.  As I predicted last month, Labour increased its percentage majority, although unlike my prediction they increased the numerical majority too. Labour’s share of the vote rose by 10.8%, […]

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By-Election Special – Feltham and Heston

November 30, 2011

The death of Alan Keen from cancer 0n 10 November has resulted in the sixth by-election of this Parliament, and the fifth for a Labour–held seat (the sixth was West Belfast).  The Coalition parties must feel blessed that none have yet to be held on their own ground. Labour has been quick to call the […]

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Byelection update: Inverclyde

July 1, 2011

I wrote last week that I thought that Labour should keep hold of Inverclyde in yesterday’s by-election as long as there was a reasonable turnout.  In the end, the turnout was quite high for a by-election: its 45.5% was 9% more than Barnsley Central and has been second only to the 48% achieved in Oldham East and Saddleworth.  Labour won […]

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By-Election Special: Inverclyde

June 23, 2011

Next Thursday, 30 June, sees the Inverclyde by-election, caused by the tragic death of David Cairns MP. The constituency is formed by the land tucked in the elbow of the Firth of Clyde and is co-terminous with the Scottish council area of the same name. Inverclyde (literally mouth of the Clyde) itself is a bit […]

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Belfast West swings to the left

June 17, 2011

Last week, I wrote on the eve of the Belfast West by-election that I thought it would be pretty uneventful and that Sinn Fein would hold it easily.  I thought that the predictability of the result would mean a poor turnout: given the time it took for the election writ to be moved, it seemed as if […]

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By-election special: Belfast West

June 8, 2011

The press have largely ignored tomorrow’s by-election what is arguably the nation’s most exceptional constituency.  Four and a half months after Gerry Adams resigned Belfast West gets the chance to pick his successor. Belfast West is the most Catholic constituency in the UK (83%) and one of its poorest: 77% of children live in households […]

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Leicester South Revisited

May 12, 2011

In all the excitement of the AV referendum, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish assembly elections, and local elections in England and Northern Ireland, the by-election in Leicester South has got rather forgotten. As we predicted before his selection, Jonathan Ashworth won easily for Labour.  The full results were: Jonathan Ashworth, Labour: 19,770 (57.8%) Zuffar Haq, Liberal Democrat: 7,693 […]

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Not A By-election For Ed To Look Forward To

May 10, 2011

Today, we heard the sad news of the death of David Cairns MP, Member of Parliament for Inverclyde (previously Greenock & Inverclyde) since 2001.  The resulting by-election will not be one that Ed Miliband will relish.  On paper, it should be no sweat for Labour: even in 2010, Cairns had a majority of 14,416.  But that just […]

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By-election special: Leicester South

March 15, 2011

I posted last week about the pending by-election in Leicester South following Peter Soulsby’s decision to run for the city’s directly elected mayor, and promised a bit more background on the constituency.  First, a map. Leicester’s three constituencies are co-terminous with the city’s boundaries, and are currently all held by Labour.  In contrast, the surrounding […]

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By-election update: Leicester South

March 7, 2011

Whilst we still await news of when the West Belfast by-election will be called, another by-election is on its way, this time in Leicester South.  This is as a result of the current MP, Sir Peter Soulsby, being chosen to run as the Labour candidate for the elected mayor of Leicester.  The by-election is likely […]

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