From the category archives:


Syriza’s Victory Reshapes Greek Politics

February 2, 2015

Last Sunday saw Syriza‘s historic election victory in Greece. Has this changed the face of Greek politics for good? The change in government of Greece this week not only showed a nation exhausted by austerity, but a fundamental shift in the politics of the country. Since democracy’s 1974 restoration in the country that invented it, […]

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General Election preview: Lincoln

January 19, 2015

For the second in our series on seats to watch in this year’s general election, we turn to Britain’s oldest constituency: Lincoln. Today, Iain Dale shared his predictions for the General Election in The Independent. Some of the individual outcomes may not pan out, but the overall numbers seem about right to me. In his […]

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General Election preview: Gordon

December 24, 2014

With the General Election only four and a half months away, we are starting a series on constituency contests to watch. But first, as it is Christmas, a story… WEE ECK The King Beyond The Wall had lost. He had thrown all he had into the epic battle, and he had taken his troops far […]

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By-Election Special: Rochester and Strood

November 19, 2014

Until 1999, it had been the convention that Prime Ministers did not visit a by-election campaign. Yesterday has marked David Cameron’s fifth visit during this by-election to Rochester and Strood – a clear indication of the level of panic and desperation in the Conservative Party caused by this Thursday’s looming by-election. When Mark Reckless first […]

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US House of Representatives Elections

November 4, 2014

On Monday, I posted on the US Senate elections, a knife-edge race between the Democrats and Republicans for control of America’s Upper House. The outcome for today’s House of Representatives is more certain, despite the fact that all 435 seats are up for election whereas only a third of the Senate is. In 2012, the […]

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Tuesday’s US Senate Elections

November 3, 2014

Tuesday sees the United States’ mid-term elections to determine its 114th Congress. These elections – halfway between Presidential elections – usually go against the party in the White House and are a useful barometer of where the political temperature is. But more importantly, they decide who will be the lawmakers of the nation for the […]

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By-Election Special: Heywood and Middleton

October 9, 2014

Today’s by-election in Heywood and Middleton should be won by Labour. But it might have been a different story if the election had been held on a different day. Of today’s by-elections, the media will focus most on Clacton, where most (including us) predict that UKIP will win its first parliamentary election. But Labour’s decision […]

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By-Election Special: Clacton

October 5, 2014

Thursday sees the Clacton by-election, caused by its sitting former Conservative MP, Douglas Carswell, resigning his seat after joining UKIP to stand for his new party. Most pundits see Carswell romping to victory, and we are certainly not suggesting he will not be victorious, becoming the United Kingdom Independence Party’s (UKIP) first elected MP (they […]

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London’s New Political Landscape

July 9, 2014

Last Thursday’s council by-election in Tower Hamlets’ Blackwall and Cubitt Town ward brought to an end this year’s local elections in London (both this election and the previous week’s in Barnet’s Colindale ward were held back from the main 22 May elections due to the death of a candidate). The London Local Elections Unlike much […]

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By-Election Special: Newark

June 5, 2014

Today sees the by-election in Newark, caused by the resignation of Patrick Mercer following his lobbying disgrace. This contest has been billed as UKIP’s chance to have its first MP elected. I think this is unlikely. Here’s the 2010 General Election result for Newark. But before I explain in more detail why a UKIP victory […]

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Local election briefing: London

May 22, 2014

Labour’s partial consolation for losing the 2010 General Election was winning control of a majority of the London boroughs the same day: more than doubling the number where it held an outright majority from eight to seventeen. That of course limits the number of London boroughs it can gain this time around, and so the […]

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Local Election Briefing – Harrow

May 20, 2014

For another of our looks at the forthcoming local elections, we turn to the north London borough of Harrow. At the last general election, the Labour Party in London had some consolation as Brown’s government lost: it more than doubled the London boroughs where it had a majority of the councillors from eight to seventeen […]

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Local Election Briefing – Trafford

May 6, 2014

We are just over a fortnight way from the 2014 local elections: a third of councillors for some authorities and all-out elections in London. There are also elections for every seat for the shadow bodies for the new Northern Ireland district councils that come in to existence next year, when the current 26 will be […]

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2016 US Presidential Runners and Riders – Part 2: the Republicans

April 23, 2014

Earlier this year, I posted on the potential Democrat candidates for the 2016 US presidential elections. Clearly, that race currently looks as it is odds on for Hillary Clinton, but it is worth looking at the options in case health prevents her running. That is as true now as when I wrote the piece back […]

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By-Election Result: Wythenshawe and Sale East

February 16, 2014

Thursday’s by-election result in Wythenshawe and Sale East was, as we predicted, a comfortable victory for the Labour Party. You can find our by-election profile here. Labour’s share of the vote increased by 11 percent from the general election, to over 55%. UKIP took second place, impressively climbing from 3.4% in 2010 to 18% on […]

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By-Election Special – Wythenshawe and Sale East

February 5, 2014

When Paul Goggins went out running a few days after Christmas, he set in train the events leading to next week’s by-election. On that fateful run on 30 December, he collapsed and was admitted to hospital for emergency surgery. Nine days later, he died of a brain haemorrhage at Salford Hospital. Labour has been particularly […]

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2016 US Presidential Runners and Riders – Part 1: the Democrats

January 13, 2014

2014 will be the year when the potential candidates for the next US presidential elections, in 2016, will start to up their game and test the ground for their campaigns. Some will decide to take things no further, others will opt to escalate their operations. This post looks at the Democrat field – I will […]

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Week 45: Hero – Bill de Blasio

November 11, 2013

This week, our award for the greatest hero of the last seven days goes to New York’s mayor-elect, Bill de Blasio I wrote last week about the result of the Virginia governorship election, one of  number of US local elections held on Tuesday. Our hero award goes to another of the victors on that day, […]

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US elections: Virginia Governor Result

November 7, 2013

Yesterday saw the outcome of a number of US elections. Chris Christie seems well lined up for a 2016 presidential run following his emphatic re-election as governor of New Jersey. The Democrats have won the mayoralty of New York for the first time in 20 years, with left-winger Bill de Blasio taking a landslide 73% […]

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US Elections: Virginia Governor

October 31, 2013

In the US, next Tuesday sees the election of two governors and 31 city mayors. Whilst a number of these elections will be significant, some of those are significant because of who will almost certainly be elected rather than because the result is in any doubt. Normally safely Democrat New Jersey is almost certain to […]

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US Elections: New Jersey senate result

October 26, 2013

Last week’s senate election in New Jersey will bolster the hopes of two potential future presidential candidates from the Garden State. The most obvious beneficiary is the election’s victor, Cory Booker. Young, dynamic, principled and charismatic (and black), he could be the next Obama. And unlike Obama, he has a prior track record of executive […]

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US Elections: New Jersey senate special election

October 16, 2013

Although 2013, as an odd-numbered year, will not have the extensive biennial US congressional elections of last year or next, there are still a number of interesting races happening over the next couple of months. 5 November sees most of these: the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia and the mayoralties of 31 cities, most […]

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UKIP target #8: Aylesbury

September 2, 2013

“Through Amersham to Aylesbury and the Vale, In those wet fields the railway didn’t pay. The Metro stops at Amersham today.” (J Betjeman, Metro-land) Our eighth constituency in our series spotlighting seats where UKIP outpolled the all Westminster parties in May’s county council elections takes us to Buckinghamshire. The first six constituencies that we reviewed […]

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Australia’s Knife Edge Election

August 28, 2013

In ten days time, Australia votes to decide who will run the country for the next three years. Until Julia Gillard was toppled, it looked likely that the Right, in the form of the Liberal/National Coalition (LNC), would win. But Kevin Rudd’s palace coup has made the race squeaky-tight between the LNC and the Australian […]

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UKIP target #7: Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

August 26, 2013

In our series on constituencies where UKIP won most votes in May’s county council elections, we have moved from Kent on to West Sussex to find our seventh seat. So far in our series, all the constituencies are Conservative-held seaside seats with a history of strong Labour performances. Labour won four of them (Castle Point, […]

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UKIP targets #5 & #6: The Thanets

August 18, 2013

We have reached the halfway point in our examination of constituencies that UKIP notionally won in the May 2013 county council results UKIP were seen as doing well in May’s county council elections along the east coast. As we have seen, they notionally won three constituencies in Lincolnshire and the East of England. But they […]

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UKIP targets #4: Sittingbourne and Sheppey

August 7, 2013

For the fourth constituency in our series looking at constituencies notionally won by UKIP in this year’s county council elections, we cross the Thames Estuary to Sittingbourne and Sheppey There is an explosion that could hit the town of Sheerness soon. No, this isn’t a clichéd political metaphor. A mile off the coast from the […]

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Which Councils Should Farage Target? (part 1)

August 3, 2013

Earlier this week, Nigel Farage outlined what UKIP’s route-map to Parliament looks like. In an interview with The Guardian on Monday, he set out a strategy of establishing “clusters of councillors” as a first step, following in the footsteps of Ashdown’s Liberal Democrats in the Nineties and the young Labour Party before the First World […]

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UKIP targets #3: Castle Point

July 21, 2013

Our third post in our series looking at constituencies where UKIP could win based on May’s county council results takes us to south Essex. The May 2013 county council results showed strong support for UKIP along the east coast, with them topping the poll in three parliamentary seats from The Wash to the Thames and […]

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UKIP targets #2: Great Yarmouth

July 5, 2013

For the second in our series on constituencies where UKIP could make a Parliamentary breakthrough, we turn to the Norfolk seaside town of Great Yarmouth. Whilst Boston and Skegness appears to offer UKIP its best chance of winning a seat in Parliament, the East Coast offers other possibilities. They had strong showings in a number […]

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