From the category archives:

Elections

Sweet Jones Alabama?

December 10, 2017

This Tuesday sees the state of Alabama go to the polls to elect a new senator. But can Democrat Doug Jones really have  a chance in this deeply Republican state? The accession of Jeff Sessions – Alabama’s former senator who Donald Trump picked as his Attorney General – created a need for an election that […]

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Georgia’s Sixth: Democrats First Test for Sunbelt Strategy

April 2, 2017

On 18 April, the southern US state of Georgia sees a ‘special election’ to find a new congressman. The election could be a key indicator for the way forward for the Democrats. One of the key questions for the Democrats to face in the aftermath of its electoral defeats last November is its election strategy […]

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Corbyn’s Copeland Catastrophe?

March 1, 2017

There is no doubt that Labour’s performance in the Copeland by-election last week was historically bad: a government last won a by-election seat off an opposition in 1982. But Jeremy Corbyn’s most die-hard supporters have tried to explain this poor result away. Do their arguments hold any weight? You have read the headlines: this is […]

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Northern Ireland Boundary Proposals: Good News For Sinn Fein?

September 12, 2016

Tuesday sees the Boundary Commissions for England and Wales publish their draft recommendations for the Parliamentary constituency boundaries for the next general election. But as a taster, Norther Ireland’s commission published their draft recommendations a week earlier. These appear to offer good news for Sinn Fein, less good news for the Ulster Unionist Party and […]

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Will You Be My Running Mate?

July 14, 2016

To take my mind off the car crash that is British politics, and the Labour Party in particular, I am having a look at the key decision that both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will be taking over the next eight days on the eve of the two parties’ conventions: who will stand to be […]

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By-Election Special: Tooting

June 15, 2016

Today sees the by-election in Tooting following the resignation of Sadiq Khan as he takes on the Mayoralty of London Much of the talk about today’s Tooting by-election has been about the tightness of the result last year. Without the advantage of Sadiq Khan’s 11 years’ incumbency, is Labour in trouble in this part of south […]

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Bernie: It’s Time To Back Hillary

June 6, 2016

Tomorrow’s batch of primaries will see Hillary Clinton secure the Democratic Party’s nomination for the presidency. I’ll explain that in a bit more detail below, and why that is the right result. The bigger story though will be how the supporters of Bernie Sanders react. * * * * * But first, a quotation from […]

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By-Election Special: Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough

May 2, 2016

Along with the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish, London and local elections being held on Thursday, there are two Parliamentary by-elections. Both should be safe Labour seats. In this post, we take a look at the first of these to be called: Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough. This constituency was created for the 2010 general election, based […]

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US primaries #11: Super Tuesday

February 28, 2016

Tuesday sees the biggest test for the Presidential hopefuls: Super Tuesday where a quarter of the delegates for both parties are up for grabs. So far, the Democrats have elected a total of 156 delegates, and the Republicans a total of 130, through the February primaries. Tuesday’s haul dwarfs those figures: in a single day, […]

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US primaries #10: Clinton’s South Carolina victory

February 28, 2016

Hillary Clinton’s emphatic victory in South Carolina removes any doubts that she will be nominated We predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the South Carolina primary with some ease. But we expected a victory on the scale of the two-to-one basis indicated by the polls – in the end the victory was closer to three-to-one. […]

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US primaries #9: the Democrats hit South Carolina

February 27, 2016

Tonight sees the last of the eight primaries that precede Super Tuesday: the Democratic primary election in South Carolina Don’t get too excited though: of those eight contests this is probably the one that has the most predictable outcome: Hillary Clinton will win, and win big. The graph below shows our rolling poll of polls. […]

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US primaries #8: the Nevada results

February 26, 2016

This week’s primaries in the Silver State cemented the lead positions for both the Democrats and Republicans Last Saturday, I posted on the Democrats’ primary caucus in Nevada. On Tuesday, it was the Republicans’ turn. So, how did it all pan out? 1. THE DEMOCRATS A month ago, Saturday’s Democratic caucus looked like an easy […]

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US primaries #7: Nevada part 2

February 23, 2016

After Saturday’s Democratic primary in the Silver State, it is now the Republicans’ turn. Hot on the heels from victory in South Carolina, will this be three wins in a row for Donald Trump? The result from South Carolina Donald Trump did not just win in South Carolina. His victory there was overwhelming. He took […]

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US primaries #6: Nevada

February 20, 2016

Today, Nevada’s Democrats caucus to decide who their presidential candidate should be. It looks close. Nevada may be the Silver State, but neither Hillary Clinton nor Bernie Sanders will be happy with a silver medal from today’s primary caucus there. The Silver State Nevada is a rapidly growing part of the nation, and with its […]

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US primaries #5: South Carolina

February 20, 2016

Tomorrow, the paths of the two US parties in seeking their presidential candidates separate. The Democrats head out West to Nevada, whilst the Republicans slog it out in the Deep South, in South Carolina. This post looks at the Republican race in the Palmetto State. South Carolina differs from the first two states that have […]

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2016 US primaries: #4 – New Hampshire results

February 14, 2016

Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary election was the last thing that either of the party establishments wanted, not only because of the victories of somewhat maverick insurgent candidates but also the nature of those victories. For the Democrats, Bernie Sanders not only beat Hillary Clinton, he trounced her. On the Republican side, Donald Trump not only […]

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2016 USA primaries: #3 – New Hampshire

February 8, 2016

Tuesday sees the next contest in the US presidential primary season, and the first true primary election, as opposed to caucus. New Hampshire is very proud of this, and likes to boast that this is the first true primary. Outside the state capital in Concord, the pavement has a timeline showing the contests, their winners […]

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2016 USA primaries: #2 – Iowa results

February 7, 2016

You know the results: despite the polls, Trump did not win and Clinton only just did. So, why did the polls appear to get it wrong? First, it is worth remembering that caucuses are difficult to poll for: FiveThirtyEight said on the eve of the caucuses that they understated their real margin of error and […]

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2016 USA primaries: #1 – Iowa

January 31, 2016

Tomorrow sees the first test in the 2016 US presidential race: the Iowa caucuses. THE HAWKEYE STATE Of the 48 contiguous US states, the Hawkeye State is the one I’ve spent least time in: a train journey across the south of the state and a few hours in Council Bluffs. For many Americans, they will have […]

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Spain’s inconclusive election

January 3, 2016

I mentioned during the week that I would post on the recent Spanish election. The recent general election in Spain has left the nation without a clear government. The current ruling party, the conservative (and successors to Franco’s Fascists) People’s Party (PP) remained the largest party, but 53 seats short of the 176 deputies needed […]

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By-election special: Oldham West and Royton

November 29, 2015

Thursday sees the first Parliamentary by-election of this Parliament and with it the first true electoral test of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. With some electoral symmetry, Oldham was the scene of the first by-election of the previous Parliament, which saw Labour hold on to Oldham East and Saddleworth. Below is the May General Election result for […]

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Labour leadership: some reflections and analysis

August 22, 2015

I’ve been in Washington DC for a couple of days. Halfway between Capitol Hill and the White House on Pennsylvania Avenue is the monumental old Post Office building, its tower a Washington landmark. The Postal Service sold it a few years ago to a certain hotel chain. The hoarding outside announces the process of the […]

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General Election preview: Cardiff North

March 4, 2015

As a belated nod to St David’s Day, we turn to Wales for our latest post in the series looking at constituencies that could change hands in this year’s general election When the Conservatives won Cardiff North from Labour in the last general election, it came as no surprise to most observers. Indeed, the only […]

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General Election preview: Sheffield Hallam

February 17, 2015

For the fourth in our series focusing on constituencies to watch during the general election, we take a look at the Deputy Prime Minister’s seat Three constituency polls over the last year have shown Labour beating Nick Clegg in his Sheffield Hallam constituency. Back in May, former Lib Dem Lord Oakeshott commissioned a poll by […]

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Don’t Panic – Labour can still win the election

February 8, 2015

My fellow blog conspirators – Charlie East-West, Ray North and George East – have all weighed in on the impending general election over the last fortnight, so I thought I should add my thoughts. As the most Labour-inclined of the four of us, it will not come as a surprise to regular readers that I […]

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General Election preview: Hampstead and Kilburn

February 4, 2015

For the third in our series focusing on constituencies to watch in the General Election, we turn to north London’s Hampstead and Kilburn In 2010’s general election, Hampstead and Kilburn was the closest result in Great Britain (although only the second closest in the United Kingdom).  Labour’s Glenda Jackson held on to the seat by […]

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Syriza’s Victory Reshapes Greek Politics

February 2, 2015

Last Sunday saw Syriza‘s historic election victory in Greece. Has this changed the face of Greek politics for good? The change in government of Greece this week not only showed a nation exhausted by austerity, but a fundamental shift in the politics of the country. Since democracy’s 1974 restoration in the country that invented it, […]

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General Election preview: Lincoln

January 19, 2015

For the second in our series on seats to watch in this year’s general election, we turn to Britain’s oldest constituency: Lincoln. Today, Iain Dale shared his predictions for the General Election in The Independent. Some of the individual outcomes may not pan out, but the overall numbers seem about right to me. In his […]

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General Election preview: Gordon

December 24, 2014

With the General Election only four and a half months away, we are starting a series on constituency contests to watch. But first, as it is Christmas, a story… WEE ECK The King Beyond The Wall had lost. He had thrown all he had into the epic battle, and he had taken his troops far […]

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By-Election Special: Rochester and Strood

November 19, 2014

Until 1999, it had been the convention that Prime Ministers did not visit a by-election campaign. Yesterday has marked David Cameron’s fifth visit during this by-election to Rochester and Strood – a clear indication of the level of panic and desperation in the Conservative Party caused by this Thursday’s looming by-election. When Mark Reckless first […]

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