Labour’s Catch 22

by George_East on July 10, 2016

Given that there is now going to be a leadership challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, as helabour logo refuses to stand down despite losing the confidence of the Parliamentary Labour Party, the position seems to be:

(i) Labour’s NEC implementing the Rules keep Jeremy Corbyn off the ballot (as he will not be able to get the 51MPs he needs for nomination), the Party descends into litigation and civil war, and splits;

(ii) Jeremy Corbyn makes it onto the ballot paper, wins re-election (possibly comfortably) and the Party splits.

Are there any other realistic possibilities as of now?

{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }

Mike Killingworth July 10, 2016 at 1:08 pm

No.

The next PM (I expect it to be Leadsom, after the Tory Party in the country has voted with its guts) will call a snap Election and win more seats than Thatcher did in ’83.

Reply

Green Christian July 10, 2016 at 10:43 pm

An early election requires one of the following things to happen:
1) A successful vote of no confidence in the government
2) Two thirds of MPs to vote for an early election
3) Revoking the Fixed Term Parliaments Act

Option 1 makes the Tories look like idiots for voting down their own government. Option 2 requires Labour’s support. Option 3 will take too long to be considered a snap election. So it’s far less likely to happen than many pundits suggest.

Reply

Ray_North July 11, 2016 at 12:34 pm

Mike – your predictions about the Tory Leadership were as good as my predictions about last season’s premier league! ;)

Reply

John Stone July 10, 2016 at 8:36 pm

That’s unlikely Mike for a raft of reasons, including Scotland, that in many marginals UKIP are more of a threat than the Tories, and thirdly I expect a minor Lib Dem revival in areas of the S snd SE that are experiencing buyers remorse from voting Tory.

But Labour has utterly lost the plot. I wouldn’t mind if there was a serious figure challenging with a clear vision for the party, but Angela Eagle! Really, it’d be hilarious if it wasn’t so farcical. And at a time when if the party had pulled together – under anyone – it could have scored serious goals against the Govt. Instead, like a bunch of children they’ve chosen to have an internal squabble about whose ball it is.

Reply

Left Pessimistic July 11, 2016 at 1:25 am

Actually, I’m not sure it would split under the first option.
It’s possible, but I think more likely, the left of the party will return to withering away marginalised by the PLP(if not deselected entirely), while Labour loses a chunk of support.

Reply

Leave a Comment

Previous post:

Next post: