What, in the name of God, is going on?

by Ray_North on June 30, 2016

imagesRight, so let’s get this right….

The Tories don’t like Europe, but some Tories dislike it an awful lot more than others. So, David Cameron, to try to unite his party and take the steam out of UKIP (and for that matter the more pro-European Labour and Lib-Dems), declares that he will hold a referendum over whether we remain or leave the EU.

Ok, so far, so good.

Some of his previously believed to be close, colleagues, including the viscerally ambitious Boris Johnson and the massively egotistical Michael Gove campaign against their leader. Indeed Johnson and Gove lead the way for ‘Out’.

Out wins.

Amazingly, no one seems to have believed the ‘experts’ when they said that voting to leave the UK, would present the country with a few headaches as the economy would tank, the constitution would be challenged by a further (understandable) referendum about Scottish independence, the security of Northern Ireland would be questioned and, to top it all, no one would have a baldy clue what our new relationship with Europe would be.

Anyway – out wins. And Cameron resigns. Johnson initially looks set to become the new leader of the Tories and PM – but, then amazingly, Gove decides that he doesn’t really want to stand too close to him either, unless that is he’s holding a knife that is up to its hilt in his mate Boris’ back. Suddenly, things don’t look too clever for Boris Johnson, he realises that he may not have the numbers to get onto the ballot paper.

So, Johnson, who has brought much of this about with his posturing, egotism and naked ambition drops out of the race.

What the fuck!

But, it doesn’t stop here. On the other side of the divide, Labour are doing their very best to make the Tories look like a paragon of common sense and rational thinking because Jeremy Corbyn has been abject during the EU referendum campaign – failing to articulate a single argument in favour of the EU – probably because he doesn’t believe in it anyway. The Parliamentary Labour Party, to be fair to them, realise this, and most of the Shadow Cabinet resign, and a vote of confidence in Corbyn’s leadership results in 172 voting against him. As overwhelming majorities go – that is a tsunami.

At this stage, and call me old-fashioned if you will, most politicians would have smelt the coffee and made their chokey speeches about how proud they have been to have been given the chance etc etc. BUT NOT JEREMY FUCKING CORBYN, Corbyn, decides to ignore his parliamentary party. And, the reality is, that he knows that he probably can afford to do so, because if he is forced to contest a leadership election – he still probably holds enough support amongst the party members as a whole to win.

So where does this leave the Labour Party?

Where does this leave the government?

Where does this leave the EU?

Where does this leave the once fairly interesting country that was known as Great Britain?

Can someone explain what happens next please?

{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

Ray S June 30, 2016 at 3:33 pm

Can’t answer all those questions but for the Labour Party, I believe that Corbyn has to go for the following reasons:
If Corbyn stays (even if he wins another leadership contest) then he hasn’t got enough support to form a shadow cabinet as those MP’s who voted against him can’t/won’t join the shadow cabinet. Replacing the MP’s isn’t possible until we have a General Election and an opposition without a full shadow cabinet and 80% of its MP’s against the leader isn’t tenable.
Of course the MP’s could leave and join or start another party, but the history of the SDP tells us that probably isn’t a realistic option and if they did Corbyn would no longer be the leader of the opposition and would be leading a party smaller than the SNP.
So you have a choice either Corbyn goes or you have no viable opposition, which do you want?
As for the Government
To leave the EU you have to invoke Article 50, but if you read Article 50 you will see that it is a suicide note. So the Conservatives have a choice either invoke Article 50 and lose any subsequent election or don’t invoke Article 50 and see a large chunk of their followers move to UKIP.
They could call anyearly election and presumably people would vote for the party that promises to either leave or remain in the EU as appropriate. I am not convinced that the Conservatives would win this as all sensible options for leaving the EU (i.e. being in EEA, EFTA, etc.), require us too still have freedom of movement and therefore we might as well remain in the EU.
So while at the moment Labour looks in the worse position, I think longer term the Govt is f**ked and this is why Boris has opted out. In fact there may be a pact between Gove and Johnson (the outers) as they don’t want to win and they are hoping that May (remain) will beat Gove and they will pick up the pieces in the future.
But given what has happened in the last week, who knows and who would dare make a prediction.

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Eddie Kaye June 30, 2016 at 3:53 pm

Cue Private Fraser….

…We’re doooomed!

Reply

Ceri July 4, 2016 at 8:16 am

If nothing else All That’s Left will need to become a blog for surviving Brexit.

Reply

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