10 Days To Go: Prediction Post #2

by George_East on April 27, 2015

SwingometerThere’s not much more than a week to go now until the general election and it is time for our second Seat Prediction post.  In the first one 10 days ago we were split down the middle.  Two of the team here at allthatsleft saw the runes favouring the Tories and the likely outcome a continuation of the Tory/Lib Dem coalition.  Whereas another two of the team saw some sort of progressive alliance emerging with Ed Miliband installed as Prime Minister.  Jackie South was even optimistic enough to suggest that Labour would be the biggest party in seat terms (which given Scotland, seems pretty unlikely to me).  So far all quiet on the Bobby West-ern front.

So what has happened to change things over the last 10 days?  Not a lot is the answer, as the polls have broadly continued to show a dead heat (though with a worrying trend of the usually more reliable phone polls showing Tory leads of 3 or 4 points a bit too many times for comfort).

In contrast to the early campaign the Tories have probably had the better of the intervening period.  Labour’s ‘NHS week’ barely got a look in as horror story upon horror story was piled on the prospect of an Ed Miliband government reliant on support by the SNP.  There was some anecdotal evidence of this cutting through on the doorstep but these reports may have been self-serving.  However, in my view there were two concrete ways in which it clearly has cut through.  Firstly, in ensuring an even greater surge towards the SNP in Scotland (one of its aims).  Secondly, in completely drowning out Labour’s message after Ed Miliband had successfully set the agenda in the first couple of weeks.   As a campaign message it is though now in danger of eating itself with Theresa May’s absurd suggestion that a Labour government reliant on SNP support would lead to the biggest crisis since the abdication of Edward VIII (yes worse than the fall of France in 1940!).

What then have been the most significant things that have happened which are likely to affect the overall result and complexion of the government.   The most important thing of all is probably Nick Clegg’s Financial Times interview when he confirmed not only that the Tories were his preference but that the Lib Dems would not do a deal with Labour, even going so far as to say that a Labour government backed by the SNP would be ‘illegitimate’ (the Tory talking point par excellence and constitutionally illiterate).  This has narrowed the possibilities for Labour and the Lib Dems are now firmly in the Conservative column.

The second most important thing as touched on above is that Labour’s position in Scotland appears to have gone from rout to total collapse.  There is now every prospect of a total Labour wipeout in Scotland and with the trend strongly towards the SNP I think that is pretty likely.  Ironically there is every prospect that the Tories will end up as the second party in Scotland (with perhaps 2 MPs) and that it will be Labour who won’t be able to find a Scottish Secretary.

Both of these things strengthen David Cameron’s hand, even if they don’t add anything to his seat total.

My revised prediction is:

House of Commons (changes since last prediction)

Conservative: 290 (+2)

Labour: 252 (-6)

SNP: 56 (+7)

Lib Dem: 27 (-2)

DUP: 9 (-)

SF: 5 (-)

UKIP: 2 (-1)

SDLP: 3 (-)

PC: 3 (-)

Green: 1 (-)

Respect: 1 (-)

Sylvia Hermon: 1 (-)

Which gives:

Conservative Bloc (including DUP): 328 (-1)

Progressive Bloc (including Galloway): 317 (+1)

Predicted Government Outcome

Con + Lib coalition (relying on UKIP and DUP votes for confidence)

Yours?

{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

Charlie_East_West April 27, 2015 at 11:33 am

My revised prediction is:

Conservative: 279

Labour: 260

SNP: 56

Lib Dem: 29

DUP: 9

SF: 5

UKIP: 3

SDLP: 3

PC: 3

Green: 1

Respect: 1

Sylvia Hermon: 1

Which gives:

Conservative Bloc (including DUP): 320

Progressive Bloc (including Galloway): 325

Predicted Government Outcome

Con + Lib minority coalition (relying on UKIP and DUP votes) – as Labour fail to negotiate firm support across the other parties.

Reply

Bobby West April 27, 2015 at 12:17 pm

Doesn’t your prediction (which I agree looks like a real possibility) lead to a second election? If there is an anti-Tory majority I don’t see how they get a Queen’s Speech/Budget through even if Labour can’t?

Reply

Charlie_East_West April 27, 2015 at 2:14 pm

My prediction does raise the prospect of another election.

Reply

Bobby West April 27, 2015 at 2:41 pm

oh joy.

Reply

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