We are less than a week away from the next tests in the Republican primary race. Tuesday sees primary elections in two sizable states: Arizona and Michigan.
Both are also potentially swing states in November, although at the moment you would favour the Republicans in Arizona and the Democrats in the Great Lakes State.
Of the two, Michigan currently looks the more interesting race, and so it is the focus of this post (I’ll follow up on Arizona later).
It ought to be a contest that Romney should walk: he won the state in 2008 with a 9-point margin despite losing the nomination over all: he won 39% of the vote to McCain’s 30%, with Huckerbee trailing in third on 16% and Ron Paul in fourth on 6%. This was all helped by the in-built advantage of being born in the state and having a dad who was a former popular governor of the state.
The map below shows how those votes were distributed: Romney was strongest in the Greater Detroit area and in the ‘Tri-Cities’ of Saginaw, Bay City and Midland. He also did well around Flint, Grand Rapids and Traverse City, and won around the other main urban areas such as the state capital of Lansing. McCain won in the more rural areas, such as the Upper Peninsula, and in the southwest of the state.
Yet Romney is not walking away with this primary: far from it. Since Romney’s Nightmare Tuesday, Rick Santorum has led in the polls in the state.
This reinforces a developing regional narrative: Romney can win in his adopted North Eastern homeland and in the West (particularly where the Mormons are strong) but has found it far harder going in the Mid-West: losing Iowa, Minnesota and the Missouri indicative poll to Santorum.
But … it all looks as if it is tightening. Below are the aggregated polls for this month (courtesy of fivethirtyeight). That 9% lead has vanished: Santorum and Romney are neck-and-neck.
As you can see, although Romney has closed the gap, this isn’t to say that he has all the momentum: although Santorum’s suport has fallen over the week, the latest polls are showing that support is draining away from Gingrich and Ron Paul, switching to the two lead candidates.
A Romney win here and in Arizona (which should be easier) will make it appear as if Nightmare Tuesday was a blip for him, placing him in a strong position going into Super Tuesday seven days later.
A Santorum win, on the other hand, reinforces his position as the challenger and will help him instead for Super Tuesday.
This is a nip-and-tuck election that is likely to perform a pivotal role in how Super Tuesday plays out.
HERO
PRAT
VILLAIN
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