I’ve already posted on the Boundary Commission’s proposals for the constituency boundaries in Northamptonshire and Leicestershire. In the latter case, a new constituency will cross the boundary into Nottinghamshire. Before explaining the impact of that, let’s have a look at the current state of play. 
That constituency crossing the county boundary is Coalville and Keyworth, described in the Leicestershire post. It has two consequences: first, the remaining electors in the county now only justify ten constituencies, rather than the current eleven. The second is the abolition of Ken Clarke’s constituency of Rushcliffe, which gets divided up four ways, with Coalville getting the largest chunk.
The map below summarises the proposals, with the current seats in green and the proposals in black. 
Broxtowe
One ward added from Rushcliffe
Broxtowe covers the western suburbs of Nottingham in the district of the same name, taking in Beeston, Kimberley and Stapleford. It is a key marginal, held by Labour between 1997 and 2010, when it was just won by the Conservatives on a majority of 389 votes (0.7%).
The proposed change is pretty minor, with the addition of the more rural Gotham ward from Rushcliffe. It is a bit of an odd addition: it is across the River Trent from the rest of the constituency without any bridge or other physical connection linking it.
Gotham ward won’t alter the electoral dynamics much though: it will make the seat slightly more Conservative, but not enough to stop it being a key marginal. Our projection, based on the 2010 result on the new boundaries, shows that majority remaining less than 1%. 
Nottingham South and West Bridgford
Nottingham South loses two wards to Nottingham West, gains eight wards from Rushcliffe
Nottingham South is the most marginal of the current three Nottingham seats, held by Labour in 2010 with a majority of only 1,772 (4.3%).
The seat covers much of the city centre and stretches south west from there to take in the main campus of the university and includes the city’s only Conservative councillors. It was held by leftie rebel Alan Simpson between 1992 and 2010.
The proposed changes take away two stronger Labour wards (Leen Valley and Radford & Park) and adds some much more Conservative territory from the other side of the Trent Bridge: the suburb of West Bridgford. These 27,000 electors from safe Tory Rushcliffe are more than enough to shift the seat into the blue column, although Labour do have councillors in Trent Bridge ward there.
So, the abolition of Rushcliffe results in Labour, not the Conservatives, being a seat down in the county.
It will be a key marginal next time around. Our projections of the 2010 result on the proposed boundaries are:
Nottingham West
New seat formed from 3 wards from Nottingham North, 3 wards from Nottingham East and 2 wards from Nottingham South
Although at first glance Nottingham appears to have gained a constituency, going from three to four seats with ‘Nottingham’ in the name, only one will be entirely within the city boundaries: this new creation.
All the wards in the constituency are safely Labour, and consequently the seat as a whole will be to. Our projections of the 2010 result on the proposed boundaries are:
Nottingham East
Based on current Gedling constituency, loses seven wards (4 to Sherwood, 2 to Nottingham North and 1 to Newark) and gains three wards from Nottingham East
Despite the name, this constituency is based more on the current Gedling seat held by Ed Balls’ mate Vernon Coaker than the current Nottingham East seat, which is effectively abolished.
Election followers were a little surprised that Coaker held on in 2010, suffering only a 2.9% swing against him. His majority now is 1,859 (3.9%).
Gedling not only includes the village of that name (for which the local district is named) but a swathe of Nottingham’s eastern suburbs including Carlton and Arnold. It also stretches east to take in the rural area around the large village of Burton Joyce, the Conservatives’ best ward in the seat.
That village now departs to the Newark constituency, whilst Arnold is split between Sherwood and the Nottingham North and Hucknall seat. In come three wards from Nottingham proper, including Labour’s safest in the city, St Ann’s.
All this means that Coaker will have far less trouble holding on next time around. Our projections of the 2010 result on the proposed boundaries are:
Nottingham North and Hucknall
Nottingham North loses three wards to Nottingham West and gains 7 wards from Sherwood and 2 wards from Gedling
It is hard to remember that Nottingham had no Labour MPs between 1983 and 1987. Between 1987 and 1992, this was the only seat they held in the city, and it is still Labour’s safest there with a majority of 8,138 (24%).
The proposals would make it a lot less safe for Labour. Seven wards come in from the Conservative-held marginal of Sherwood. Hucknall itself is now good for Labour, although the Conservatives did have councillors there before 2011. The more northern additions, particularly wealthy Ravenshead, are strongly Conservative. Two more wards come in from Gedling, which are marginally more Labour than Conservative.
The over all impact is to make the seat a Labour marginal, although one they should hold unless they do a lot worse than in 2010. Our projections of the 2010 result on the proposed boundaries are:
Newark
Loses five wards to Sherwood, gains four wards from Rushcliffe and one from Gedling
Whilst Labour held this seat between 1997 and 2001 (a victory that got its MP Fiona Jones in court for allegations of election expense fraud) it is now a very safe haven for Conservative Patrick Mercer, sitting on a 16,152 majority.
The seat not only includes the town of Newark-on-Trent, but the nearby town of Southwell and an area of Rushcliffe district around Bingham. Labour hold one ward in Newark itself and the Lib Dems have councillors in Southwell and Bingham, but this is safe Conservative rural territory.
The proposed changes, whilst quite significant, will not alter that – in fact, they probably make it a bit safer. Out go four Tory wards, plus Lib Dem held Sutton-on-Trent, in come five new Conservative ones. Our projections of the 2010 result on the proposed boundaries are:
Sherwood
Loses 7 wards to Nottingham North & Hucknall; gains 5 wards from Newark, 4 from Gedling, 2 from Bassetlaw and 1 from Mansfield
Sherwood was created in 1983 to take in the mining areas in the west of the old Newark seat. That Newark seat was marginal, and the plan was to create a Tory seat (Newark) and a Labour one: Sherwood, based on the Dukeries coalfield around Ollerton. In fact, the Tories won it, just, in 1983 and that lead stretched out in 1987 following the miners’ strike.
Labour’s regaining of the seat in 1992 was meant to put an end to all this though. However, Tory Mark Spencer clearly didn’t read the script , taking it in 2010 with a 214 majority (0.4%).
The current seat includes not only the Dukeries, but also wealthy Ravenshead and Labour Hucknall. These are lost to the Nottingham North and Hucknall seat, and in come a number of wards from various directions: most of the town of Arnold comes in from Gedling, the small town of Market Worksop from Mansfield, and then a long north-eastern rural extension through the north of the Newark constituency into the eastern side of Bassetlaw.
The Arnold part is fairly balanced between Labour and the Conservatives, whilst Market Worksop (in the form of Birklands ward) is strongly Labour. Four of the Newark wards are Tory, whilst Sutton-on-Trent is Lib Dem. Finally, the Bassetlaw parts tilt just about to the Conservatives over Labour.
The net impact is to increase the Conservative lead, but the constituency remains marginal. Our projections of the 2010 result on the proposed boundaries are:
Ashfield
Unchanged constituency
The sole unaltered constituency in the county is Ashfield, based around the towns of Kirkby-in-Ashfield, Sutton-in-Ashfield and D.H. Lawrence’s hometown of Eastwood. The seat has been Labour since its creation in 1955, other than a Conservative by-election victory in 1977.
Given that it is in the Nottinghamshire coalfields, it ought to be a lot safer than it is. Sadly, it had to suffer 18 years of having Geoff Hoon as its MP before GMTV presenter Gloria de Piero was parachuted in last minute in the run-up to the 2010 election. The Ashfield voters bristled at all this, and almost handed the seat over to the Liberal Democrats, who were running a minority administration on the local council at the time.
In all fairness, de Piero has ended up being a diligent local MP, and last year’s council results have put Labour firmly back in charge. Expect Ashfield to return to being a safe Labour seat in future years.
That 2010 result was:
Mansfield
Loses one ward to Sherwood
Labour almost lost Mansfield in 1987, in the wake of the miners’ strike, but unlike Ashfield and Sherwood it is a coalfield seat that remains fairly comfortably Labour.
Its MP, Alan Meale, has made the journey from being a leftie union official in his first contest in that 1987 (holding on by 56 votes) to knight of the realm, and having paid back £12,000 in gardening expenses on the way. That majority was 6,012 (12.4%) in 2010.
The only change proposed is the removal of Birklands ward, covering most of the small town of Market Worksop (not to be confused with Worksop proper), to Sherwood. This shaves a little off that majority, but not enough to make the seat marginal.
Our projections of the 2010 result on the proposed boundaries are:
Bassetlaw
Loses two wards to Sherwood
Bassetlaw, based around the mining town of Worksop and the market town of Retford, is Labour’s safest seat in the county outside of Nottingham itself. It has been in Labour hands since 1929, other than when it was held by ‘National Labour’ in the form of Ramsey MacDonald’s son Malcolm. Current MP John Mann held it in 2010 with a majority of 8,215 (16.6%).
Labour is strongest around Worksop, whilst the Conservatives do better in the east of the constituency. Labour retook its seats in Retford last year that it lost in previous years, but there is still one Tory ward together with a number of rural ones.
The good news for Mann is that two of those rural wards are moved over to Sherwood in the proposals, strengthening his hold on the seat. Our projections of the 2010 result on the proposed boundaries are:
Summary
Two seats are abolished – Rushcliffe and Nottingham East – whilst a new safe Labour seat, Nottingham West, is created. The net impact is one fewer seat for Labour, a a result of Rushcliffe’s dismemberment turning Nottingham South blue. The Conservatives’ tally of constituency therefore remains unchanged.
Conservative marginal Sherwood becomes less marginal, whilst Labour marginal Gedling transforms into the safe Nottingham East. Previously safe Nottingham North becomes the marginal Nottingham North and Hucknall.
The map below summarises these changes.
HERO
PRAT
VILLAIN
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