North West boundary proposals round-up

by Jackie_South on November 24, 2011

To round off my series of posts on the impact of the Boundary Commission’s proposals for North West England, this is a summary piece that links all the others.  You can find the posts on individual counties here:

Before we look at the changes, here is the map of the seats held in the region at the moment:

The impact of the changes are summarised in the table below.  As you can see, Labour comes out best of the changes in the North West, despite its concern over the sense of seats like Mersey Banks and the division of towns like Leigh and Ashton-Under-Lyne.  This is in contrast to changes elsewhere in the country, such as London.

CHANGES

Abolished seats:

New seats:

Seats notionally changing hands

MARGINALS

The map below shows the notional 2010 results on the new boundaries, colour-coded to show the lead of the notional winning party.

Conservative seats with majority less than 10% over Labour

Labour three-way marginals (first figure lead over Con, second lead over Lib Dem)

Other Labour seats with majority less than 10% over Conservatives

Other Labour seats with majority less than 10% over Liberal Democrats

Liberal Democrat seats with majority less than 10% over Conservatives

{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }

Phil C. November 25, 2011 at 6:04 pm

Excellent work! A fine series of highly-detailed articles.

~

The UK Polling Report does a headline national rate.
But, with regard to the next general election, it may be worth bearing in mind that Lib Dem support has declined in a non-uniform manner since the high water mark of May 2010. Ipsos MORI did some detailed regional polling, from June to November 2010, which indicated an evaporation of Lib Dem support in the North-East and varying rates of decline elsewhere.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/latestnews/605/Liberal-Democrat-dropping-dramatically-in-some-regions.aspx
In the North-West region, Labour moved up from 39% to 48%
while the Lib Dems went down from 22% to 15%
and the Tories stayed virtually unchanged on 32% to 31%

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