Cumbria Boundaries revisited…

by Jackie_South on November 22, 2011

Ah-humm.  An apology!

Earlier this month, I posted apiece on the Boundary Commission’s proposals for Cumbria, setting out these in some detail and then trying to calculate what the 2010 election results would have been on these boundaries.  A Brown commented that the figures for Kendal and Penrith looked a little odd, so I’ve re-run the figures.  As a result, I’m eating a little humble pie.

First, a reminder of the map.

It is worth explaining how the problem arose.  The new seat is formed from parts of the Eden and South Lakeland districts.  Both of these had very few wards contested by Labour: only 3 wards out of 30 in Eden in 2010.  The issue is therefore how to allocate the votes that Labour won in the general election among the wards where they were not contesting locally.  The other problem was the high number of uncontested elections in the 2010 locals in both districts.

I’ve tried to recast these numbers,by first looking at 2011 results as well as 201o for the district elections to try to get a fuller picture – both in terms of party votes and to fill in the gaps where an uncontested election in 2010 was contested this year.  Secondly, I’ve also more closely balanced the numbers shared out by the electorate in the ward.  I’ve done this for all the elections across Cumbria, not just Eden and South Lakeland to ensure consistency of approach.

Most of these reworked figures are similar in percentage terms to my original piece.  However, those for Kendal and Penrith have changed enough to show that this would have been a Liberal Democrat marginal in 2010 rather than a Conservative one.  The figures in both Copeland & Windermere and Workington & Keswick are also a little closer.

Here are the recalculated figures:

2010 notional result: Labour marginal

  • Labour: 21,155 (44.6%)
  • Conservative: 17,426 (36.7%)
  • Liberal Democrat: 6,398 (13.5%)
  • Other: 2,482 (5.2%)

2010 notional result: Conservative seat

  • Conservative: 23,789 (43.6%)
  • Labour: 17,624 (32.3%)
  • Liberal Democrat: 9,246 (16.9%)
  • BNP: 1,377 (2.5%)
  • UKIP: 1,261 (2.3%)
  • Other: 1,253 (2.3%)

Copeland and Windermere
2010 notional result: Conservative marginal

  • Conservative: 20,193 (37.2%)
  • Labour: 18,989 (35.0%)
  • Liberal Democrat: 12,513 (23.1%)
  • BNP: 1,335 (2.5%)
  • UKIP: 1,141 (2.1%)
  • Other: 110 (0.2%)

Kendal and Penrith
2010 notional result: Liberal Democrat marginal

  • Liberal Democrat: 28,692 (50.5%)
  • Conservative: 23,437 (41.2%)
  • Labour: 3,141 (5.5%)
  • UKIP: 1,226 (2.2%)
  • Other: 353 (0.6%)

Workington and Keswick
2010 notional result: Labour marginal

  • Labour: 20,609 (39.8%)
  • Conservative: 19,545 (37.8%)
  • Liberal Democrat: 7,561 (14.6%)
  • BNP: 2,103 (4.1%)
  • UKIP: 1,215 (2.3%)
  • Other: 704 (1.4%)

The proposals reduce Cumbria’s parliamentary representation by one seat, and on the last election’s results this lost seat would have been Labour’s.  The Lib Dems, rather than the Tories as I previously posted, would hold the new Kendal and Penrith seat.

However, on the basis of UK Polling Report’s current running poll of polls, Labour would take back both the Copeland and Windermere constituency and, by a 0.9% margin, Carlisle.  The Tories would win Kendal and Penrith off Tim Farron, but Farron has a better chance of staying put than my earlier post suggested.

A big thanks A Brown for your help on this.

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