Lib Dems: Devon Knows I’m Miserable Now

by Jackie_South on March 21, 2011

UK Polling Report have flagged up this poll of voting intention in the South West. It would see the Lib Dems wiped out of Devon. And Cornwall. And Dorset, Wiltshire and (pre-1996) Gloucestershire too.  They would be left with Bath, Thornbury & Yate and Yeovil. 

The poll by Marketing Means shows the following share of the vote:

  • Con: 39% (-4% since the general election)
  • Lab: 29% (+14%)
  • LDem: 18% (-17%)
  • UKIP: 6% (+1%)
  • Green: 6% (+5%)

The poll is relatively small (492 identified voting intentions) and so should be treated with some caution.  However, it does seem in line with national polls.

What would this do in terms of representation?  The map below shows the current state of play in the region:

The Tories made up a bit of ground in the region last year, but the map is a mixture of blue and yellow with only four small blobs of red: two in Bristol, Exeter and Plymouth Moor View. 

With the changes in each party’s vote identified in the poll, I calculate that the map would look like this:

With Labour almost doubling their share of the vote, they pick up 11 seats.  The Lib Dem collapse to just over half their support last year sees them lose a dozen seats.  Whilst the Tories vote falls, as most of the contests in the region are Conservative against Liberal Democrat, they pick up a net one seat.

Liberal Democrat to Labour:

  • Bristol West

Conservative to Labour:

  • Bristol North West
  • Dorset South
  • Filton & Bradley Stoke
  • Gloucester
  • Kingswood
  • Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
  • Somerset North East
  • Stroud
  • Swindon North
  • Swindon South

Liberal Democrat to Conservative:

  • Cheltenham
  • Chippenham
  • Cornwall North
  • Devon North
  • Dorset Mid & Poole North
  • St Austell & Newquay
  • St Ives
  • Somerton & Frome
  • Taunton Deane
  • Torbay
  • Wells

All of this is a bit academic with the boundary review.  But it does illustrate the problems that the Lib Dems now find themselves in.

{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

clare March 21, 2011 at 11:16 pm

First time on this blog. Love the name!

From anecdotal evidence I agree pretty much that right now this is the way it looks like panning out.

I really think that Labour has failed in the South West and other rural areas because they have never turned their attention to rural issues that are not town-centric. I remember reading the campaign literature in 2010. The Liberal Demcrats were all about villages, post offices and disused railway lines. The Conservatives were farming, the EU, land use. Labour had ‘access to the countryside’ as their issue. Mmm.

Reply

Lee Morgan March 22, 2011 at 11:48 am

Hello.

I’m going to do a story on the poll for the People’s Republic of South Devon site, and I wondered if it would be possible to use your graphic based on the March 2011 poll, with attribution and a link back to your site.

Please let me know if that’s possible.

All the best
Lee

Reply

Lee Morgan March 23, 2011 at 10:11 am

Hi Jackie South

Thanks for that.

We’ve used your March 2011 poll graphic. Here’s the link for you to check it out.
http://www.peoplesrepublicofsouthdevon.co.uk/2011/03/23/lib-dems-predicted-to-lose-out-in-the-south-west/

Cheers
Lee

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