10 Days To Go: Prediction Post #2

by George_East on April 27, 2015

SwingometerThere’s not much more than a week to go now until the general election and it is time for our second Seat Prediction post.  In the first one 10 days ago we were split down the middle.  Two of the team here at allthatsleft saw the runes favouring the Tories and the likely outcome a continuation of the Tory/Lib Dem coalition.  Whereas another two of the team saw some sort of progressive alliance emerging with Ed Miliband installed as Prime Minister.  Jackie South was even optimistic enough to suggest that Labour would be the biggest party in seat terms (which given Scotland, seems pretty unlikely to me).  So far all quiet on the Bobby West-ern front.

So what has happened to change things over the last 10 days?  Not a lot is the answer, as the polls have broadly continued to show a dead heat (though with a worrying trend of the usually more reliable phone polls showing Tory leads of 3 or 4 points a bit too many times for comfort).

In contrast to the early campaign the Tories have probably had the better of the intervening period.  Labour’s ‘NHS week’ barely got a look in as horror story upon horror story was piled on the prospect of an Ed Miliband government reliant on support by the SNP.  There was some anecdotal evidence of this cutting through on the doorstep but these reports may have been self-serving.  However, in my view there were two concrete ways in which it clearly has cut through.  Firstly, in ensuring an even greater surge towards the SNP in Scotland (one of its aims).  Secondly, in completely drowning out Labour’s message after Ed Miliband had successfully set the agenda in the first couple of weeks.   As a campaign message it is though now in danger of eating itself with Theresa May’s absurd suggestion that a Labour government reliant on SNP support would lead to the biggest crisis since the abdication of Edward VIII (yes worse than the fall of France in 1940!).

What then have been the most significant things that have happened which are likely to affect the overall result and complexion of the government.   The most important thing of all is probably Nick Clegg’s Financial Times interview when he confirmed not only that the Tories were his preference but that the Lib Dems would not do a deal with Labour, even going so far as to say that a Labour government backed by the SNP would be ‘illegitimate’ (the Tory talking point par excellence and constitutionally illiterate).  This has narrowed the possibilities for Labour and the Lib Dems are now firmly in the Conservative column.

The second most important thing as touched on above is that Labour’s position in Scotland appears to have gone from rout to total collapse.  There is now every prospect of a total Labour wipeout in Scotland and with the trend strongly towards the SNP I think that is pretty likely.  Ironically there is every prospect that the Tories will end up as the second party in Scotland (with perhaps 2 MPs) and that it will be Labour who won’t be able to find a Scottish Secretary.

Both of these things strengthen David Cameron’s hand, even if they don’t add anything to his seat total.

My revised prediction is:

House of Commons (changes since last prediction)

Conservative: 290 (+2)

Labour: 252 (-6)

SNP: 56 (+7)

Lib Dem: 27 (-2)

DUP: 9 (-)

SF: 5 (-)

UKIP: 2 (-1)

SDLP: 3 (-)

PC: 3 (-)

Green: 1 (-)

Respect: 1 (-)

Sylvia Hermon: 1 (-)

Which gives:

Conservative Bloc (including DUP): 328 (-1)

Progressive Bloc (including Galloway): 317 (+1)

Predicted Government Outcome

Con + Lib coalition (relying on UKIP and DUP votes for confidence)

Yours?

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#1014: 2015, Charli XCX ft. Rita Ora, Doing It

by Jackie_South on April 26, 2015

With the election spitting out so many villains, it feels like we’ve been giving Nigel Farage an easy ride of late: any other time his comments about turning back the boats carrying refugees fleeing civil war in Africa would have made him a shoe-in.

So, I’m posting this song to spur him and the other UKIP-pers into a seizure-inducing rage. Why? Well, Charli XCX and Rita Ora sum up all those frothy-mouthed little Englanders’ nightmares about what this country has become: Charli XCX is the daughter of a Ugandan Indian refugee and Rita Ora is of course the nation’s favourite Kosovan immigrant.

There is of course a risk that this piece of Madonna-influenced pop might also upset our own George East too, but that seems a small price to pay.

Me? I think it is a great piece of girl pop, and I like the Thelma-and-Louise, David LaChapelle influenced video set in the Californian desert (a bit like where my cousin lives out there, in fact).

Nigel, this one’s for you…

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Week 17: Villain – Nick Clegg

April 26, 2015

This week’s villain of the week is Nick Clegg for appearing to rule out a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition in a hung parliament as he dismissed any deal that relied on “life support” from the SNP. Clegg also stated that any coalition with the party that finished second in the election would lack legitimacy with voters, […]

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Week 17: Hero – #milifandom

April 26, 2015

The latest Twitter craze wins our Hero of the Week award For a general election where so much is at stake, the campaigns of the three (currently) largest Westminster parties all seem flat and underwhelming. You might be forgiven for forgetting that a Tory-Lib Dem Coalition version 2 will almost certainly spell the end of […]

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Labour’s Options Narrow As Nick Clegg Sides With The Tories

April 24, 2015

Two developments today have strengthened Tory hands. The first and least surprising was Nigel Farage confirming that UKIP were ‘no longer neutral’ over who is to be Prime Minister and calling for a Tory-UKIP pact to ensure that David Cameron is.   Although hardly a shock there had been, at one point at least, a sense […]

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#1013: 2014, Catfish and the Bottlemen, Pacifier

April 22, 2015

I have recently been accused of jealousy! Yes, moi! It was suggested that one of the reasons that I have a go at Danny Alexander is because I’m jealous of his rise to a Ministerial position – ha – bollocks to that. Catfish and the Bottlemen on the other hand, I am genuinely jealous of […]

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Election Panic – The Tories Have Only Themselves to Blame

April 22, 2015

Panic in Whitehall. Panic in the Shires. Panic on Fleet Street. Panic at Tory HQ. Panic in The City. The election campaign is not going according to plan, and all those creatures and institutions connected together in Toryland are in danger of losing the plot. The last throw of the dice is to hurl more […]

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We All Love Nicola – But Do We Want A Relationship?

April 22, 2015

Ok, so we all love Nicola Sturgeon – she has, without doubt, been the stand-out politician of this general election, and when I say that I really wish that there was a chance that she could end up as a Prime Minister of the UK, I mean it. And, yes, we are all seduced by […]

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Are We A Nation Divided?

April 22, 2015

With less that two weeks to go until polling day – it appears that we have become a nation split between, by my reckoning, four distinct groups who broadly follow four distinct narratives. Narrative One is this: ‘all the troubles of the late naughties were caused by the Labour government’s profligacy; we must reign back […]

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Why Voting (and Politics) Still Matters

April 21, 2015

I love politics. I still cling to a rather desparate idealistic belief that politics matters and that politics can change people’s lives for the better. I also believe that whoever can vote, should vote. It is our hard fought democratic right. For all the issues presenting themselves in this shabby little island of ours, we […]

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Why the Tory Scaremongering About the SNP isn’t Ending Anytime Soon

April 20, 2015

Having not got much traction with their initial ploy of going directly after Ed Miliband – which veered from portraying him as an uber-geek to a Terry-Thomas style ladies’ man, the Tories have bet their house on going after Ed Miliband through the proxy of the SNP.    It has felt as if they (and their […]

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Week 16: Prat – David Cameron

April 19, 2015

This Week’s Prat of the Week award goes to (the hopefully for not much longer) Prime Minister David Cameron Thursday saw the final debate of this election campaign. It was also only the second debate. The debate was remarkable as being on contested only by the 5 main opposition party leaders. There was no David […]

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Week 16: Villain – Iain Duncan Smith

April 19, 2015

The Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Iain Duncan Smith, earns our Villain of the Week award There is a certain capricious callousness to much of this government’s approach to work and welfare: they do not care enough about the lives of those on benefits and low pay to bother to see what damage […]

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Week 16: Hero – Jimmy Anderson

April 19, 2015

This week’s hero is the English fast bowler Jimmy Anderson. There is something amazing about the sight of a fast bowler running up to the crease, all lithe and sinewy, face contorted, legs and arms pumping as he prepares to propel the cricket ball at speeds of up to 90mph at the stricken batsman. At […]

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20 Days to Go: Seat Prediction Post #1

April 17, 2015

Well, that is the last of the debates done and we are into the back straight of this, so far, pretty uninspiring election campaign.  One or two apparent outliers aside, the polls appear to have moved hardly at all from where they were at the beginning of the year, which may mean that nobody is […]

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What did the BBC Debate tell us?

April 17, 2015

The BBC Debate, just like the previous TV debates are proving to be much better than their equivalents from five years ago. The additions of Plaid Cymru, SNP, Green Party and yes, even UKIP have created a more rounded and broader political spectrum for debate. The voter demands nothing less, as more and more people […]

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#1012: 1986, Wire, Drill

April 15, 2015

Last night I finally got to see art punk legends Wire on the first night of their five night residency at the Lexington to mark the release of their new eponymous album.  They are a band I’ve had on my wish list for decades.  It was a rare chance to see a legendary artist in […]

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The Slow Death of the Labour Party

April 15, 2015

What a disappointment. As pointed out by George East, the Labour Party manifesto saw Labour jump through the trap door and lock themselves into the deficit/austerity trap set by the Tories. For all Ed Miliband’s courageous behaviour in standing up to corporate tax evaders, Murdoch and negative media campaigning, it all represents small beer compared […]

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The Lib-Dems: Is This The Worst General Campaign Ever?

April 15, 2015

I’ve been listening to David Laws on the radio this morning – David Laws, like Danny Alexander is someone who I worked with when I was living my former life – unlike Danny Alexander, David Laws did not make my tea, I made his. He is a likeable man with a ferocious intellect. When he […]

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Labour’s Self-Defeating Deficit Fetishism

April 14, 2015

At yesterday’s launch of the Labour manifesto Ed Miliband exuded confidence.  Pretty much all commentators agreed that it was one of his best performances since becoming Labour leader, reminiscent of his speeches to the Labour Party Conference in 2012 and 2013, rather than the car crash of last year.  Its focus (perhaps with that deficit-forgetting […]

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Week 15: Villain – Michael Fallon

April 13, 2015

This week’s villain award goes to the Tory Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, for attacking Ed Miliband over Britain’s Trident nuclear deterrent and making the attack less about policy and more about a grubby personal slandering. Fallon, wrote in The Times that Miliband “stabbed his own brother in the back to become Labour leader. Now he […]

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#1011: 2015, Belle and Sebastian, Perfect Couples

April 13, 2015

Perfect couples…don’t you just hate them? I hate their smugness. I hate their public displays of affection. I hate the fact they probably shop at Waitrose. But most of all, I hate the dinner party, chi-chi home interiors, fee paying school, status anxiety coupledom masquerading as middle class perfection. Perfect couples are to be seen […]

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Week 15: Hero – Ed Miliband

April 12, 2015

This Week’s Hero of the Week Award goes to Ed Miliband for taking the fight to the Tories and winning (the week at least) Many of us, including me, had assumed that Labour’s last vestiges of hope of removing this hideous government had disappeared. With the chances of a majority long gone as a result […]

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Week 15: Prat – The Conservative Party

April 12, 2015

This week’s Prat of the Week Award goes to the Conservative Party for their ugly election strategy of demonising any clear and present dangers to their election success, and in particular, their personal attacks on Ed Miliband. They also deserve the award for a spectacularly useless election campaign, with embarrassing photocalls and being all over […]

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A Big Thanks To Our Readers…..

April 11, 2015

Because according to Realbuzz .com our humble blog about politics, music with occasional forays into sport and film – has, for the last two consecutive months, been the fastest growing political blog in the UK. Now it was never our intention to become a mass website, nor do we expect to, or want to compete […]

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#1010: 2013, Courtney Barnett, Avant Gardener

April 11, 2015

I’ve just got back from seeing Courtney Barnett‘s gig with George East in Camden. Fantastic stuff. “Here’s another cover. This is by Courtney Barnett: it’s called Avant Gardener”. What I love about this song (besides the title) is the apparent rambling lyrics setting out her anecdote about experiencing an anaphelactic shock, which you then realise […]

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Trident: The British Ego has Landed

April 10, 2015

There is absolute nothing that will turn on and set the juices flowing in a Tory as much as Britain displaying virility on the global stage. Tory MPs remind me of politics from a bygone era where Britain ruled the waves, land of hope and glory & born to rule. They are the sort of […]

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#1009: 1980, The Jam, Going Underground

April 7, 2015

When I realized that I was down to do this song, I decided to put it on my turntable, turn it up and write what came to me. And the first emotion is one of urgency – this was a song written and played with such great urgency and energy that it is like being […]

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Week 14: Prat – The Tory Press

April 6, 2015

This week’s Prat Award goes to the Tory Press for scribbling utter nonsense to support the Conservative Party in their attempt to win the election. It happens every time. The Tory Press have once again switched themselves onto howling at the moon default settings to try and destroy anyone or anything that might present a […]

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Week 14: Hero – The American and Iranian Governments

April 5, 2015

This week’s joint heroes are the governments of the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran.’ Nuclear weapons are bad. A fairly obvious statement, but I’m more than happy to make it, because, quite frankly, I don’t fancy seeing anyone getting blown up by a nuclear bomb any time soon. For the […]

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